March 15, 2010

From the desk of Bob Keefe
Washington, D.C.
March 1, 2010

Political Update

The time has come, at long last. We are about to have the final action on President Barack Obama’s health care initiative. The legislative engineering gears are churning on both sides of the Capital getting ready to process the bills ready for the Members to vote on at last.

Under the torturous procedure that is required to bring about votes on the matter, we expect that the House of Representatives will vote Saturday or Sunday on the bill that passed the Senate last Christmas Eve in the exact form that it passed. That bill then will be engrossed and sent to the President for his signature. Once signed, the bill becomes law… but wait, this is just the first act. Reconciliation requires more stagecraft.

The House will then take up a bill to amend the bill it just passed to make perfecting changes and make it more acceptable to the Members of the House. When that bill is passed, it moves to the Senate for action. In normal times, it would be placed on the Calendar and require a super majority (60 votes) to get to a vote. But this will be Reconciliation and it will be available for unlimited amendment and a final vote, all by simple (51 vote) majority.

The Republicans have announced that it will continue to work to defeat the health care initiative. They plan to file many amendments to tie up the Senate and defeat the bill.

By now, the Health Care bill has become a hurdle that the President is required to jump to establish his primacy in this government. It has become the make or break moment for him.

Meanwhile, our Wars Continue

Lest we forget, Americans keep dying and keep being injured in Iraq and Afghanistan. The official count as of March 1, 2010, of the dead since our involvement in Iraq began on March 23, 2003 is 4,383; the dead from the war in Afghanistan from its beginning in September 2001 is 1,020. The count of American service personnel wounded in Iraq is now 31,626; in Afghanistan 9,496 according to the Department of Defense.

I am afraid that war has become a permanent and usual condition of American life – one that directly impacts only a small segment of the population. The fifteen thousand dead and 50,000 wounded in Iraq and Afghanistan over the past ten years is an enormous number, but still few among the general population. It speaks to the fact that the burden of our protracted wars falls on a relatively small number of Americans… and it falls on them very harshly.

Even, within the military, the burden is not disbursed. As the wars wear on, the forces redeploy and redeploy. One third of those recently killed in Afghanistan had served previously in Iraq. It isn’t fair, is it? Nor is it moral to allow such a small percentage of our population bear this enormous burden so that the rest of us can enjoy the fruits of freedom they are protecting.

- – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - -
Robert J. Keefe
TKC International, Inc.
1776 I Street, NW, Suite 900 – Washington, D. C. 20006
Telephone: 202 255-8161 – E mail: rkeefe@tkci.com
Past issues of Political Update available at www.bobkeefedc.com

From the desk of Bob Keefe
Washington, D.C.
March 1, 2010

Political Update

Washington is warming up… not so much climate-wise, but the political temperature, already in the fever range, is about to get hotter. The calendar is pushing Democrats to move quickly to achieve progress on their health care, financial industry reform and economic recovery programs. The election is approaching and now is the time to move… a lot like Apolo Anton Ohno enterring the last lap of one of his short track ice skating scrambles.

In case you are looking at a calendar and thinking that the election, scheduled for November 2, is still eight months or so away, please re-think. This timetable must be adjusted for Congressional work time. The Congress has set October 8 as the target date for adjournment and they have four “district work periods” (other people would call them vacations) set between now and then. They normally have four day work weeks, but limit voting to three days… So add it up. We have probably fewer than 75 work days until the witching hour… Election Day.

Priority # 1 – Health Care Reform

The historic, televised bipartisan health forum held this past week put the players on the program. President Barack Obama hosted the meeting to engage his Republican counterparts to come up with some form of consensus on the health care legislation. The meeting was really a great policy show and allowed all of us to better understand the positions of both sides. But it did not move the parties one inch toward a consensus. Rather, I think, it pushed the Democrats to move and move quickly. They have to pass health care. It is a prime political imperative. And they are now on record that they will have to do it themselves.

That means that Senate Harry Reid will introduce his “nuclear option”, reconciliation.

Reconciliation

You will hear a lot about Reconciliation in the days ahead. Reconciliation is simply a legislative procedure in the Congress that was created in 1974 during the deliberations on theCongressional Budget Act of 1974 to allow consideration of contentious budget resolutions without the threat of filibuster. Although it was designed to be used only on budget matters, it has been used many times by both Democrats and Republicans to grease the way for legislation that is controversial… not necessarily only for budget related issues.

It is considered the “nuclear option” because it is the action of last resort, the most powerful action the majority can take to pass a bill over stiff opposition. It emasculates the minority by removing the filibuster threat and the need for a 60 vote margin to pass a bill. Members of the Majority like it a lot. Members of the Minority hate it. Whichever party is in the minority will rant and rave and call it every bad word they can think of. Just cover your children’s ears when you see a Republican get ready to address reconciliation.
The process is a somewhat complicate one, but one that can be achieved without interference from the minority. The reconciliation process is triggered when Congress passes a concurrent resolution on the budget instructing one or more committees to report changes in law affecting the budget by a certain date. Then the committee sends their recommendations to the Budget Committee of their House, and the Budget Committee packages the recommendations into a single omnibus bill. The beauty of reconciliation is what happens next. In the Senate, the reconciliation bill then gets only 20 hours of debate, and amendments are limited. There is no chance to prevent the body from moving to a vote on the matter.
The “Byrd Rule” (named after Democratic Senator Robert Byrd) was adopted in 1985 and amended in 1990 to outline provisions for which reconciliation can and cannot be used. The Byrd Rule defines what ways a provision can be “extraneous” and therefore ineligible for reconciliation. Reconciliation generally involves legislation that changes the budget deficit (or conceivably, the surplus) if it does not produce a change in outlays or revenue.
Any senator may raise a procedural objection to a provision believed to be extraneous, which will then be ruled on by the Presiding Officer, customarily on the advice of the Senate Parliamentarian. A vote of 60 senators is required to overturn the ruling. The Presiding Officer need not necessarily follow the advice of the Parliamentarian, and the Parliamentarian can be replaced by the Senate Majority Leader. Every detail works to the benefit of the majority.
It is interesting that this single provision of the budget process was responsible for massive debt accumulation during the last administration. During the terms of President George W. Bush, the Republicans used reconciliation to enact three major tax cuts and several strongly deficit budgets, each of which substantially increased the deficit.
And then on to the House
Under the Democrats’ tentative plans, the House would pass the health care bill developed by the President for this conference last week, and both chambers would approve a separate package of changes using budget reconciliation.
Senator Reid has his problems – but it is becoming clear that Harry may have the easier job. He is working with a bill which enjoys the support of nearly all of his 59 Democratic Senators. That is understandable. The bill Mr. Obama unveiled before his bipartisan health forum last week hews closely to the one passed by the Senate in December, but differs markedly from the one passed by the House. … Poor Nancy Pelosi… The Speaker has more than enough Democrats to pass anything – except things that they do not agree on… and that is the problem.
You may remember that the bill passed by the House won 219 votes, one more than a majority. The lone Republican to vote for the bill, Louisiana Rep. Anh Cao, of has already announced his opposition to the compromise now on the table…It does not have the strong anti-abortion language that was accepted in the House. The Speaker has very little room to maneuver.
The Speaker has to rein in enough votes from two blocs of swing Democrats in the House of Representatives — abortion opponents and fiscal conservatives. Satisfying them is easy, except that when you do, you alienate the bigger block of main line liberals in the House. With Republicans unified in their opposition, Democrats are drafting plans to try to pass a bill on their own. That leaves Ms. Pelosi in the tough spot of trying to keep all of her Members on board. She has to persuade some who voted “no” to switch their votes to “yes”.
There are 39 fiscal conservatives who voted “no” the first time around. Ms. Pelosi is hoping that she can get some to switch those “no” votes to “yes” in favor of Mr. Obama’s less expensive measure. But persuading Democrats who are already on record as opposing a health overhaul to change their vote will not be easy, especially during a midterm election year. Of the 39 Democrats who voted against the House measure, 31 represent districts that were won in 2008 by Senator John McCain of Arizona.
Right now, the people who try to measure these things believe that there are more Democrats who voted “yes”, considering changing their position than “no” voters considering changing. It will be time for Members to risk becoming political martyrs… and volunteers for this category are never plentiful. They like their jobs.
Speaker Ms. Pelosi’s problems are wide spread. She needs to convince some of her senior members, as well as back benchers. It is a tough problem, one that will test the legislative engineering of the Speaker and her team and of the arm twisting squad from the White House. This vote could end up creating a good number of future American ambassadors.
A Bar Mitzvah on Capitol Hill

There was a true Bar Mitzvah ceremony on Tuesday in a House Hearing Room. It was the ritual of coming of age of a 53 year old Japanese Business Executive, Akio Toyoda. It was just like in the Synagogue. Akio Toyoda is old enough to understand and accept the obligations of his new status, and he is proud to have the obligations that came with the job. He read for the first important time as President of his company a policy statement to the United States Congress, not the Torah. His contrition and his earnestness proved him worthy.

He had been called to explain to the Congress and to the American people how the Toyota Motor Company could have so completely lost its dedication to safety control and put so many vehicles on the road that create danger to their users. The committee members were cordial but stern. They expressed concern over the deadly results of Toyota crashes. Toyoda made no excuses, took responsibility for the problems and promised that his company would return to its legendary emphasis on “Quality, Safety and Value.”

Akio Toyoda is the grandson of the founder of Toyota Motor Company. He has been working in the ranks of the company for many years preparing to become its leader, which he did in June of last year. The safety problems were created before he took over. He has been handed the aftermath and the commercial disaster which it has provoked. His reaction has been laudatory. “My name is on every one of our vehicles,” he said, “and I assume complete responsibility for correcting the situations. You have my personal commitment that Toyota will work vigorously and unceasingly to restore the trust of our customers.”

Other Toyodas and other Toyota leaders have made significant presentation in their careers, but this performance under such enormous pressure by the youngish president could be the most important ever. His company is under siege – from the U. S. and Japanese governments for reporting questions; from consumers who question the safety of their vehicles; from the investment community which is watching their Toyota’s net worth dropping by the day; and from their competitors – happy to see the leader fading. Only a Toyoda could stem the tide… and I believe that Akio Toyoda began a turnaround in public opinion and corporate credibility with his simple, honest presentation.

He could have easily added the signal line of a true Bar Mitzvah to his presentation, “Today I am a man!”

Meanwhile, our Wars Continue

Lest we forget, Americans keep dying and keep being injured in Iraq and Afghanistan. The official count as of March 1, 2010, of the dead since our involvement in Iraq began on March 23, 2003 is 4,380; the dead from the war in Afghanistan from its beginning in September 2001 is 1007. The count of American service personnel wounded in Iraq is now 31,626; in Afghanistan 9,496 according to the Department of Defense.

We have passed another milestone in the Afghan War… the death of the 1,000th United States service person in that combat. This event passed by last week unnoticed by the public who were engrossed in other things… complaining about snow removal, watching exciting curling matches at the Olympics and such things.

I am afraid that war has become a permanent and usual condition of American life – one that directly impacts only a small segment of the population. The fifteen thousand dead and 50,000 wounded in Iraq and Afghanistan over the past ten years is an enormous number, but still few among the general population. It speaks to the fact that the burden of our protracted wars falls on a relatively small number of Americans… and it falls on them very harshly.

Even, within the military, the burden is not disbursed. As the wars wear on, the forces redeploy and redeploy. One third of those recently killed in Afghanistan had served previously in Iraq. It isn’t fair, is it? Nor is it moral to allow such a small percentage of our population bear this enormous burden so that the rest of us can enjoy the fruits of freedom they are protecting.

- – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - -
Robert J. Keefe
TKC International, Inc.
1776 I Street, NW, Suite 900 – Washington, D. C. 20006
Telephone: 202 255-8161 – E mail: rkeefe@tkci.com
Past issues of Political Update available at www.bobkeefedc.com