August 15, 2008

Washington, D.C.

August 15, 2008

Political Update

I thought we might have at least one Vice Presidential candidate named by now to write about, but it is not so. Democrat Barack Obama took the week off to revisit the land of his youth and relax with his family in Hawaii. Republican John McCain has kept up his campaign, only tempting us with discussions of Vice Presidential possibilities.

But this means that the next three weeks will really be filled with news and excitement. For the first time in this campaign the two candidates will be on the same stage tomorrow night in Lake Forest, California for the Saddleback Civil Forum. Dr. Rick Warren, the popular pastor and author (The Purpose Driven Life) will interview each of the candidates separately on the role of the presidency in government, leadership, the candidates’ worldviews and America’s role internationally.

Then, sometime within the next few days, the Veepstakes will be over. It is expected the Obama will name his running mate first, but will it be early week or late week. It is a cat and mouse game… If Obama waits until Friday or Saturday, the schedule will put a squeeze on McCain, since the Democratic Convention starts Sunday and will run through the Thursday, just before the Republicans are set to open their meeting in Saint Paul. What an exciting and possibly defining time in this campaign.

Status stays Quo

As this summer runs to its end, the state of the political races have not changed much. All summer long Barack Obama has stayed in the upper half of the 40’s and John McCain just over 40. The Democratic Congressional edge is still about twelve points in the generic test. Senate races have not budged…with the Democrats in position to take new seats, but unlikely to hit their goal of 60. The money race is also a broken record. In July, the Obama campaign outraised the McCain campaign by $51 million to $27 million.

So we look forward to the conventions to see if one candidate can break out… Will they get a “bump” or a “bounce” from their media extravaganzas? With the conventions so close together and so late, their importance is probably enhanced.

Democratic Conventions

I am a big fan of Conventions… During my political career, Conventions were always a highlight of my work. I have done just about everything there is to do at a convention, from the management of the convention itself to running candidate campaigns at conventions. Though there are great similarities among them, Conventions all take on a life of their own and have left me with different images.

The 1964 Convention in Atlantic City was just ten months after the assassination of President John F. Kennedy and the delegates were still mourning his loss. As special tribute session was arranged featuring an emotional film commemorating his life. My memory is not of the film, but of the sustained twenty-two minutes of applause that his brother Bobby received as he tried to introduce the film. He broke down and cried like a baby. It was high drama.

Chicago in 1968 was two conventions, both unpleasant. The anti-war demonstrators waged war against the establishment in the Loop amid chaos and anarchy. In the International Amphitheater, on the South Side, the party had its own war. The emotions created by the Vietnam issue permeated the proceedings but a strong reform movement took hold and began the process of changing and democratizing the party’s nominating rules. It was a very unpleasant week in both ends of town. My boss, Sen. Birch Bayh introduced the keynoter, Sen. Dan Inouye of Hawaii, and I had to ask him how he wanted his name pronounced to the national audience… “In no way,” he said.

Vietnam continued to divide the party when it met in Miami in 1972. New rules were in play and kingpins like Mayor Richard Daley of Chicago were victims of the new procedures – he was not seated. It was the most contested and contentious conventions in my memory. There were many challenges and George McGovern was nominated on the basis of the Credential Committee ruling on the efficacy of the California Delegation. Rancor was the order of the day. The divided party lost in a landslide.

From the ashes of the two preceding electoral cycles, Jimmy Carter was able to build a winning coalition and we had a great celebration in New York in 1976. Chairman Bob Strauss was the master who orchestrated a truly elegant festival in Madison Square Garden. The great voice and rhetoric of Congressman Barbara Jordan was introduced to the national audience for the first time as the keynote speaker.

Back to the Garden we went in 1980… hoping that it was good luck… But it was not. Ted Kennedy challenged Carter for the nomination and was really a pest at the convention. He gave a spectacular, but self-serving speech, and then avoided the Carter in the post nomination celebration. The scene of the President chasing the Senator around the platform to get the celebratory handshake told volumes… and the disunity continued helping sink the re-election effort of President Carter.

The 1984 convention was peculiar… The Moscone Center is not tall and sightlines seemed weird. The West Coast time difference called for afternoon sessions. And for the first time ever, I was not working the convention 24×7. I was stunned when I was invited to a party at the exact time that New York Governor Mario Cuomo was to give his keynote address. I did not know what happened at conventions outside the hall. What a wonderful world opened to me… It is always party time at a convention.

Atlanta was the host of the convention of 1988. I have three big memories. The keynote speech by Texas Treasurer (later Governor) Ann Richards was phenomenal… She took Republican nominee George Bush apart like no one ever did before or since. Then Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton (then an up and coming political star) bombed big time in his first national appearance… and people thought he was through. The last is a bit of showmanship. We had to remake the stage so that the short-short nominee Mike Dukakis could appear with the tall-tall VP nominee, Lloyd Bentsen, in a two-shot that made sense. It was a masterful job of stagecraft.

It was back to New York to nominate a winner in 1992. Chairman Ron Brown – a New Yorker by birth – orchestrated an excellent event and made it into a Bill Clinton showcase… and Clinton responded very well. Barbara Jordan was called on for a return appearance as the keynoter. This was the first convention year that the networks determined to back off their gavel to gavel coverage of the events. It did not change much, really, except for denying all of those minor stars an opportunity for TV time.

New York is a great town for a political convention, but Chicago is my favorite. There was some trepidation in going back after the trauma of 1968, but the new Mayor Richard Daley made up for all of the problems of the past. Clinton was not challenged, so it was just a party – and a great one. Another up-and-coming young star of the party laid an egg in his keynote address… Governor Evan Bayh, of Indiana… my current favorite for the second half of the Obama ticket.

It was another West Coast convention for the nomination of Al Gore in 2000 at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. Hollywood offers a lot of advantages for superior hospitality, but oh is it tough to get around. And going to the hall in mid afternoon seems goofy. It was a milestone in security… even before 9/11, the hall was tightened dramatically. The memorable moment of the convention was Al and Tipper’s grand embrace and kiss… a truly Hollywood moment.

The 2004 convention in Boston will be remembered more for its introduction of the 2008 candidate than for any other great moment. The keynote address of the little known Senate candidate from Illinois, Barack Obama, set the Fleet Center on fire and began a bonfire across the country that is still blazing. The convention was well executed, but lacked the firepower in message to give John Kerry the push he needed to defeat the incumbent president.

Over these years, the conventions have gone from being the processes by which the candidates are really selected to a media frenzy designed to kick off the campaigns. In 1960, John Kennedy won his nomination at the convention. In 1968, Humphrey won his nomination at the Convention and so did McGovern in 1972. Since that time the race has been over well before the delegates met and the conventions became a media event and social function.

I been at all of these conventions and look forward to being in Denver next week to see Barack Obama nominated. Conventions take their energy from the campaigns and the candidates who rule them. The moods of conventions are telling… The Obama campaign has so much enthusiasm and vigor; I look forward to a really great convention that will provide solid momentum for the fall campaign.

A Japanese Solution

Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda is in a bit of a pickle. His approval ratings tanked, so he changed his Cabinet… a traditional Japanese political resuscitation move. It doubled his ratings – unfortunately only to the mid-40’s. He has an election coming up. The economy is dipping. His Global Warming Program is muddled; and his ability to control the actions of his legislature, the Diet, is proscribed by the fact that the opposition controls the Upper House. It is not a pretty picture.

So what did he do? I will let him tell you his plan, as he did in his weekly internet magazine:

On Monday, we compiled an outline of the Comprehensive Measures for Bringing About Peace of Mind so as to respond to the rising prices and the economic downturn that are having a profound impact on the nation’s economy. As I mentioned in last week’s issue of this e-mail magazine, we will firmly implement effective measures to address the issues we face, including global warming and the worldwide surges in the prices of crude oil and foods.

That’s right… when all is in shambles; it is time, in Japan, to get back to basics. I look forward to seeing just what it is that the PM proposes… Maybe we can use it here.

Delegate Count

Democrat Republican

Barack Obama 2,201 – needed 2,118 John McCain 1575 – needed 1,191

Schedule

August 25-28 – Democratic National Convention Denver, Colorado

September 1-4 - Republican National Convention Saint Paul, Minnesota

Friday, September 26 – First presidential debate: University of Mississippi, Oxford, MS

Thursday, October 2 – Vice presidential debate: Washington University in St. Louis, MO Tuesday, October 7 – Second presidential debate: Belmont University, Nashville, TN Wednesday, October 15 – Third presidential debate: Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY November 4 Election Day

Meanwhile, In Iraq

Lest we forget, Americans keep dying and keep being injured in Iraq and Afghanistan.   The official count as of August 15, 2008, of the dead in Iraq since our involvement began on March 23, 2003 is 4,141.  There have been 571 Americans killed in Afghanistan in this same time period. The count of American service personnel wounded in these two theaters has now passed the 34,000, according to the Department of Defense.

I had occasion to visit with a man who had recently returned from a six month tour in Afghanistan. He is an air force officer and was assigned to bring some semblance of order to the air control system there. He was impressed by the lack of progress we seem to have made. After spending six years in the country and billions of dollars, he saw conditions that surprised and disappointed him. The security perimeter was defined by the fence of the base… and beyond that was “no man’s land.” There seemed to be little or no provision of life support to the locals… they were still living off the cruel land and looking for someone who would give them something for their families. Progress? He did not see any.

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Robert J. Keefe

Principal – Meridian Strategies, LLC

1920 L Street, NW, Suite 410 – Washington, D. C. 20036

Telephone:  202 223-8839  – Cell:  202 255-8161  – E mail: rkeefe@verizon.net