May 1, 2008

Washington, D.C.

May 1, 2008

Political Update

I never thought I would come to this… But I have gotten tired of this campaign; tired of the 24/7 news coverage; the instant experts that analyze minutia ad nauseum; the contrived conflict among the television performers. It has just gone over the top. And yet there are 116 days left until the opening of the Democratic National Convention in Denver – 123 days until the Republicans meet in Saint Paul, and 188 days until the voters will go to the polls to select the next President.

So what is a political junkie like me to do? I guess, I just keep my head down, focus on the important news and plow ahead. It won’t be easy.

When will the Democratic nominating contest end? Not in June… No – Not in July! The contest will end about eight pm MDT on the evening of Wednesday, August 27, at the conclusion of the roll call of states on the question of the nominee of the Democratic Party for the Office of President of the United States at the Convention in Denver… and not a minute sooner. Until that moment, the candidate who is not in the lead will still believe that there is a chance for a miracle to bring home the victory.

Indiana, My Indiana…

Who would have ever thought that my home state of Indiana would become a pivotal state in the Democratic nominating race this year! Here it is tagged in to the tail end of the process with just 78 delegates – twenty-nine fewer than North Carolina that votes on the same day. It has just one statewide elected Democrat – Senator Evan Bayh. The Democratic candidate for president has not carried the state since Lyndon Johnson did in 1964. It is a red-neck red state in the rust belt. But it is where I’m from.

Indiana was one of the primaries that President John Kennedy won on his road to the White House in 1960. He was accused of spending “recklessly to win.” It was alleged that he had spent $300,000 in the campaign. Indiana was the first primary that his brother Bobby entered in 1968 following the withdrawal of President Johnson from the race. He beat Sen. Eugene McCarthy and Indiana Governor Roger Branigan decisively and established himself as a true force in that year’s campaign.

I’m from Huntington, Indiana, twenty-five miles southwest of Fort Wayne on US 24. I like to tell people it is the site of the only Vice Presidential Library in the World… that of Vice President Dan Quayle, who began his political career as the publisher of the town’s newspaper – then owned by his grandfather.

When I grew up, Huntington was a sun-down town… no African Americans were allowed after dark. When Huntington High School hosted the state basketball champs, the Indianapolis Crispus Attucks – an all black squad featuring Oscar Robinson, the coaches had to arrange for one of the restaurants to prepare and serve their post-game meal privately so as not to offend the city folks. They loved to watch them play, but were not prepared to watch them eat. The Ku Klux Klan boasted a membership of almost a half million members in Indiana in its second coming and was an important force in state government in the 20’s and 30’s. My home state has a sorry record of race relations.

Indiana has an African American population of about 9% today, segregated into the Calumet area of the Northwest, in Indianapolis, and clustered in the major cities. Most of the rural areas remain almost totally white.

I know that Senator Barack Obama is from neighboring Illinois and that about twenty percent of the Indiana households are covered by Illinois television. I know he can propel an army of home state volunteers in action in the state. But I have been wondering how he would be able to cut through the decades of prejudice that may color Indiana voters choices. It seemed to me that the state has been Hillary Clinton’s for the taking… and if Obama should win it, he should be immediately crowned as the grand champion of bringing folks together. And I would be very happy to think that my Indiana has changed.

Tackling the Tough Problem of Michigan and Florida

It would have been easy, if one candidate had sixty percent or so of the delegates sewed up. But with the race as close as it is, with the nomination potentially hanging in the balance, the disposition of the sanctions of the Michigan and Florida delegations for the egregious violations of the DNC rules regarding the timing of their delegate selection primaries will not be easy.

The job has fallen in good hands. The DNC Committee on Rules and Bylaws, co-chaired by Alexis Herman and Jim Roosevelt, Jr. will take up the questions at a special meeting they have called for Saturday, May 31. These are two of the most skillful and appreciated officials in the party. Alexis has served at high levels in the party and was Secretary of Labor. Roosevelt is the grandson of… and a respected Academician and lawyer from Boston.

The thirty-some members of the committee were selected several years ago, when this sort of trauma was not anticipate, nor were there any serious candidate preferences yet established. They worked hard in 2007 to finalize the updating of the rules for delegate selection and they adjudicated the questions about timing that arose at the turn of the year when things got out of hand. They eventually imposed the sanctions that are in place now against Michigan and Florida. Under the rules in the call to the Convention the Committee retains jurisdiction over all credentials disputes until July 1, when that jurisdiction passes to the Credentials Committee of the Convention itself.

What are they to do? They will not please everybody and I believe they know that. They can only hope to craft a solution that is acceptable to the contestants, to the delegates, to the states in question and maintain the primacy of the rule of law to govern the Democratic Party.

The remedies are all imperfect and controversial. They really cannot do nothing and leave the states unrepresented at the convention. And it is equally impractical to allow the totality of the results of the primaries to stand since the candidates did not compete fully in either state. So how does one cut a compromise that reflects some kind of reality of the events that occurred without penalizing either the candidate who campaigned against the rules or the candidates who abstained from campaigning as the DNC had ordered.

By the date of the meeting, the campaign will still be locked in limbo. It is unlikely that either candidate will have the total lock on the nomination. There is likely to be enough delegates on the table in the meeting to perhaps sway the nomination one way or the other. Michigan lost 128 pledged delegates and 28 super delegates, for a total of 156. Florida lost 185 pledged and 25 super delegates, or a total of 210. If it were valid, Florida’s election would have given Clinton 105 delegates to Obama’s 67. Michigan’s would have given Clinton 73 delegates, while 55 were uncommitted.

There is a plan circulating that would allow all the super delegates to vote and to give the pledged delegates 1/2 vote. (This solution of awarding half-delegates would give Clinton 89 more delegates and Obama 33.5, with 27.5 uncommitted delegates.) Who believes that the Obamans will buy this solution? Allowing the super delegates to vote is the easy part. The logic expressed is that the super delegates be fully restored since they aren’t bound by election results any way. It is also fair to suggest that these are the people who created the problem… as elected officials or party big shots, they were the ones who determined to over ride the rules and go their own way. Another idea is to seat all of the delegates and let them vote on all questions other than the nominee for President.

There are no easy solutions… There is no answer that pleases everybody. It is an ugly problem. When the Committee makes a decision, I believe it has to report its solution to the Executive Committee of the Democratic National Committee. Back in January, when these sanctions were imposed, they did it all the way. The committee acted and then they got the DNC to amend the Call to the Convention, decreasing the number of delegates to Michigan and Florida to zero. That can only be reversed by DNC or Executive Committee action. So May 31 might be the start of something… not the end of the squabble. Keep tuned.

Delegate Count

Democrat Republican

Hillary Clinton 1,332 Barack Obama 1,491 John McCain 1331

*This count is of the earned and committed delegates only. Super delegates are NOT committed and will not be included in my counts until they vote. My experience is that elected officials are the most likely to change their minds…most unlikely to be faithful. The current estimate is that Clinton has 260 and Obama has 241 according to a telephone survey done by CBS and the New York Times April 28 and 29.

Schedule

May 6 Indiana 78 D 57 R

North Carolina 107 D 69 R

May 13 Nebraska 31 D 33 R

West Virginia 37 D

May 18 Hawaii 20 R Caucus

May 20 Kentucky 54 D 45 R Caucus

Oregon 62 D 32 R Caucus

May 27 Idaho 32 R Caucus

June 1 Puerto Rico 55 D

June 3 Montana 16 D

South Dakota 15 D 27 R Caucus

New Mexico 32 R Caucus

Meanwhile, In Iraq

Lest we forget, Americans keep dying and keep being injured in Iraq.   The official count as of April 30, 2008, of the dead since our involvement began on March 23, 2003 is 4,065.  There have been more than 29,911 American service personnel injured in this activity according to the Department of Defense.

Today is the fifth anniversary of President George W. Bush’s now famous proclamation “Mission Accomplished” from the deck of the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln signifying that that major combat operations in Iraq had ended.

That image of our president, uniformed in a flight suit for his trip the carrier in a SB-3 Viking combat aircraft, standing in front of the giant banner proclaiming that the combat had ended has become an icon of the failure of Bush and his foreign policy and military team to understand what they had uncorked when they invaded Iraq. It is a lasting scene that will mark his presidency.

Interestingly, our president set a new record today. Bush set an all time high for the percent of Americans who feel unfavorably about his conduct of the presidency – 71%. That even beats the number that Richard Nixon racked up during his summer of shame in 1974. Let us hope this record stands forever… It is not good to have such an unpopular leader. We need someone we can respect, admire and believe.

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Robert J. Keefe

Principal – Meridian Strategies, LLC

1920 L Street, NW, Suite 410 – Washington, D. C. 20036

Telephone:   202 223-8839   – Cell: 255-8161 – E mail: rkeefe@verizon.net