October 16, 2008
Washington, D.C.
Political Update
How do you wage a national political campaign when the economic fabric of our nation is being torn apart? We are seeing the two Presidential candidates and their campaigns trying to do that. It is not easy.
Candidates normally take the lead and promote ideas and concepts for governance that they hope will attract the voters. But in this climate, both Barack Obama and John McCain have been forced to react… not so much to each other, but to the daily trauma that comes over the ticker from Wall Street and around the globe. Neither man has any control over what is happening or to the remediation that is being applied. They can only work in hypotheticals, not the real world where the action is… Even when the Congress had to step up to perform, they were less than bit players.
They are being judged on how they are reacting. Demeanor is being assessed… who seems most composed and commanding… who is suggesting the better, more practical ideas… who’s ideas will help the little guy – not just the banks… It is an interesting kind of campaign – not one that anyone has any experience in.
But the economic problems are defining the campaign. The big issues of spring – Iraq and other foreign problems – seem inconsequential in the face of today’s troubles. Americans are scared and they are looking for leadership that they believe they can trust to lead our nation through this travail. It is a very different fall campaign than anyone could have imagined… and not a pleasant one.
The State of Play with 19 Days Left
John McCain had his best day yesterday since his convention – and it wasn’t as good as Barack Obama’s. In the third and last debate of the campaign McCain opened fast with an aggressive tone and took the fight to his challenger. But as the debate wore on Obama’s studied and comfortable manner in discussing his plans for the nation looked more attractive to a great percentage of the viewers than the heated discussions from the Arizona Senator.
Fifty-eight percent of those polled by CNN who watched the debate say Obama was the winner. Only twenty-two gave McCain the nod with the remainder suggesting it was a tie. Obama’s favorable rating went up to 66 percent (up from 63%), McCain’s down to 49 percent (from 51%). On the dominant issue of the debate, the economy and the its current slide, 59 percent of debate watchers polled said Obama would do a better job handling the economy, 24 points ahead of McCain.
The debate was, by far, the most engaging and most informative of the three that the candidates performed. The simple format, sitting together and having immediate opportunities to question or comment on the other’s statements made the ninety minutes fly by. Bob Schieffer, the CBS commentator who was moderated the show was most helpful in posing questions that provoked solid reactions from both men.
Now it is back to the grind for both men and their running mates. The battleground states have changed a bit… Obama has been successful in using his superior funding and volunteer corps to broaden the playing field. McCain now has to spend time and resources to shore up his support in a number of states that have been a part of the Republicans’ winning map in the past two campaigns. The change from red to blue states has begun along mountain west and the mid Atlantic.
Joe Biden has taken on the look of a typical vice presidential candidate… that is invisible. He is out on the hustings, propping up support from the traditional democratic base. Sarah Palin is still in the public view… spending a good bit of time on the arm of McCain, and making news with provocative pronouncements on a daily basis. Biden does no harm; Palin has become a problem for her ticket. No longer is she the cute phenom – her credibility and capacity are seriously questioned and her personal poll numbers have plummeted in recent weeks.
The Presidential Race
Obama McCain Spread
National Average 49.5% 42.7 % Obama +6.8%
Favorable Ratings +21.4 +4.7 Obama +13.6
Electoral College 286 158 Obama +128
EC (No toss-ups) 364 174 Obama +190
Battleground States
Ohio 48.9 45.5 Obama +3.4
Virginia 51.6 43.0 Obama +8.6
Colorado 50.4 44.6 Obama +4.8
Florida 49.8 45.0 Obama +4.8
North Carolina47.9 46.7 Obama +1.2
The Congress
The latest look at the Senate races gives Democrats hope that they can reach that cherished goal of a 60 seat caucus. The pick up of four to six seats has been assumed now for many months, but in recent weeks, the economic mess and the failure of the top of the Republican ticket to help the Senators has created a very difficult situation for the Republican strategists and they are now in triage mode – trying to save the candidates with the best hope of winning.
In the last days they have pulled their money from the Louisiana race, the only Democratic Senate contest that seemed possible for them to win. Sen. Mary Landrieu has a double digit lead and seems comfortable there now. The Democrats seem sure to win seats in Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia. Now, some previously safe Republican seats now seem in trouble… Senator Chambliss of Georgia is only slightly ahead. Roger Wicker in Mississippi is now a toss up as is Gordon Smith in Oregon and Democrat Al Franken is leading in Minnesota.
The big surprises are that Elizabeth Dole is behind in North Carolina and that the leader, Mitch McConnell is in a very tight race in Kentucky. It has become the common gossip that the Alaska race is being decided in Washington where the Federal criminal trial of Senator Stevens is being conducted. If he walks from the corruption charges in the courtroom, observers believe the lead Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich has will wilt.
The latest generic vote for Congress is virtually unchanged… “If the election were today would you vote for the Democratic candidate 46.6%,
or the Republican candidate 37.8%.
Early Voting
Election Day in America is not what it used to be. At least one-third of all ballots cast this year will be made by early voters. In the effort to stop the downward trend in participation in American elections, election administrators have opened voting ahead of the normal Election Day. It is an attempt make voting easier and more accessible.
In twenty-seven states voters can cast their ballots ahead of November 4. In nineteen of them, there are special voting places and the voters can walk in and vote in person without the excuse previously required for absentee ballots. All of them allow voting by mail… so long as the ballots are received before the close of polls on Election Day. Voting in person began in Arizona on October 3, and voters in North Carolina could vote by mail as early as September 15th.
The trend toward easier early voting started out west… Washington and Oregon were the pioneers. In Oregon now, there is really no Election Day. Voters receive a ballot in the mail and return them to the voting office by mail, or by dropping it in specially arranged drop off facilities.
The impact of early voting is just being studied… Do early voter differ in their choices from those who go to the polls on Election Day? Does turn-out improve or decline? Good questions, but no real answers yet. In California where absentee balloting provisions have been relatively easy, candidates have dedicated enormous resources to both encouraging voters to opt for the early ballot and to persuading the recipients of absentee ballots to vote their way.
I guess I am old-fashioned. I do not like the unlimited early balloting.
Schedule
Tuesday, November 4 – Election Day
Quadrennial Election Contest
It is time for you to play expert! Name the next president of the United States and his correct Electoral Vote count and win Keefe’s Pick the Winner Contest! Entries must be emailed, mailed, or faxed to Bob Keefe and must be received before 12:00 noon Greenwich time on November 4, 2008. Use the form attached below or to hit the link to my blog site, www.bobkeefedc.com, and use the convenient entry form that is located in the right hand column its home page. The entry that correctly identifies the winner of the election and has the closest number of electoral votes he receives will be the winner and get the grand prize – a ticket to the Inaugural Ball on January 20, 2009.
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First Name______________________Last Name________________________
Address________________________Email__________________________
The winner of the 2008 Presidential Election will be______________.
He will receive ________________ Electoral Votes.
Tie Breaker!! The number of Democrats elected to the House of Representatives for the 111th Congress will be __________.
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Meanwhile, In Iraq
Lest we forget, Americans keep dying and keep being injured in Iraq and Afghanistan. The official count as of October 15, 2008, of the dead in Iraq since our involvement began on March 23, 2003 is 4,185. There have been 613 Americans killed in Afghanistan since that war was begun in 2001. The Department of Defense says that more than 35,000 American service personnel have been wounded in these two theaters. The casualty rate in Afghanistan is now running about the same as in Iraq – seven last month in Afghanistan and eight in Iraq.
I heard the Secretary of Defense speak last night… He focused on the Afghan problem more so than Iraq, suggesting that it is a much more complex situation on the ground than Iraq ever was… and we all know what we have heard about the complications that plagued our troops there.
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Robert J. Keefe
Principal – Meridian Strategies, LLC
1920 L Street, NW, Suite 410 – Washington, D. C. 20036
Telephone: 202 223-8839 – Cell: 202 255-8161 – E mail: rkeefe@verizon.net
