September 1, 2008
Washington, D.C.
September 1, 2008
Political Update
After several quiet, sleepy weeks, the campaign for the White House erupted into action last week. First, the Democrats convened in Denver, Colorado to formally adopt the candidacies of Barack Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice President in a week-long event with daily spurts of excitement and drama.
Then, when we stopped to take a breathe, John McCain popped a surprise that has created much enthusiasm among his fellow Republicans and turned the campaign on its ear again by his selection on Friday of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to be his Vice Presidential running mate.
And all of this took a back seat as the nation looked again at a strong hurricane bearing down on New Orleans. The real threat and the memories of the Katrina disaster that hit that city just three years ago distracted the political scene, particularly the Republicans, set to convene their convention in Saint Paul, Minnesota on Labor Day. Day One of the convention has been dismantled and the rest of the schedule is on hold until the impacts of Hurricane Gustav are known.
The Convention in Denver
Few of the conventions that I have attended have had so much internal intrigue as this one. Unity was the principal goal of the convention chieftains… The goal was to provide a platform for Bill and Hillary Clinton to be properly recognized and appreciated while making sure that the focus was on the candidacy of Barack Obama.
In Hillary’s speech on Tuesday night and Bill’s on Wednesday, the Clintons themselves resolved the problem. In stirring addresses, the Clintons reviewed their claims to achievement and firmly, strongly, unambiguously pledged allegiance to the nominee of the party. Their actions defused a major time bomb and allowed the convention to proceed to glorify the ticket of Obama and Biden.
Both of the nominees made attractive presentations to the convention and the nation… Biden introduced himself and his family to the national audience, and then made a scathing attack on the Republican nominee, John McCain.
Then to cap off a successful week, Barack Obama rose to the occasion to deliver one of his most powerful speeches… and he did it in front of more than 80,000 spectators in Denver and to more than 38 million households who watched on television – an audience ten percent larger than watched the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics earlier in the month.
Obama tried to put some meat on the bones of his message – giving specifics about what “Change” means, taking a few swipes at the McCain record, and providing the inspirational message for which he has become famous. It was a successful week for the Candidate and his new partner… really as good as he could have hoped.
McCain’s Choice
John McCain jumped into the spotlight quickly after the lights dimmed on Mile High Stadium in Denver, and he did it with a bombshell. After tempting the usual suspects, Romney, Pawlenty, Lieberman, Huckabee, Ridge, Hutchison, and others, he pulled a Governor out of his pocket – the Governor of Alaska, Sarah Palin – and made her his running mate.
The choice is an interesting one… It means that John McCain is prepared to roll the dice on a very important decision. He picked an unknown, relatively inexperienced woman with strong conservative views and charisma, to be his partner in the election. Her choice immediately lit the fire under the evangelical and social conservatives who have been lukewarm about the McCain candidacy. She is one of them, a staunch anti-abortionist, anti-gay rights, gun toting mother of five.
She is new to the national scene; new to the nuances of a national campaign; and very new to important areas of interest like foreign policy and military affairs. Before Palin’s election in 2006 as the state’s first woman governor, she served two terms on the city council of Wasilla, Alaska (population 6,700), and two terms as the mayor/manager of Wasilla.
She does not seem to fit the description that McCain had touted for his VP choice – the best prepared individual to step in to the job of President on a moment’s notice.
Conventions
What has become of the conventions we used to know? They are gone and lost forever. And that is not necessarily all bad. In Denver, no one noticed that the Democratic Party adopted a platform. In years past, that was a major focus of activity and its planks became the subject of much speechmaking. This year, it was pre-cooked and adopted without notice.
Even the little matter of the presidential nomination was accomplished quietly. Even though the rules of the convention required a roll call vote on the matter, it took the strong insistence of Hillary Clinton to make that happen… but it was done in the middle of an afternoon with little coverage. Clinton interrupted the vote to move the unanimous selection of Barack Obama.
The Charter (Constitution) of the Democratic Party says that:
”The National Convention shall nominate a candidate for the Office of President of the United States, nominate a candidate for the office of Vice President of the United States, adopt a platform and act upon such other matters as it deems appropriate”
Everything else is showmanship… vital to the campaign perhaps, but not necessarily something that requires delegate attendance or attention. Do not get me wrong. I am not anti-convention. I simply believe that it is time to adjust the convention to the reality of the modern nominating process.
In Saint Paul this week, the contraction of the Republican Convention caused by the arrival of the Hurricane on the Gulf Coast demonstrates the small amount of time that is needed to complete the actual work of the convention. The Republicans plan to deal with those matters – adoption of a platform, rules for the party and the next nominating process, and the nomination of candidates for President and Vice President – during a short session late on the afternoon of their first scheduled day.
I have two strong thoughts on future conventions:
- They should be held in domed stadiums, not basketball arenas… There are too many people who want to attend to deny them access. The Republicans held its 1988 convention in the Superdome in New Orleans and in the Houston Astrodome in 1992… and had no problem packing the house on either occasion. The Pepsi Center was much too small for the 2008 Democratic convention… The crowd more appropriately fit into the Mile High Stadium, as we saw.
- We should acknowledge the reality that conventions are really political show business and design them accordingly. Have one session to do the basics – rules, platform and candidates – then organize the rest of the time and the space to maximize the political presentations appropriately.
The Next 65 Days
By the end of this week, the Republicans will have their ticket secured and their messages prepared. The race will be on.
There is much talk today of the changing the battleground. There will be a little of that – from both sides. The Obama strategy will be to broaden the contest, to work to pry a couple of Blue states into the Red column… states like Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico. McCain will also try to invade previously Democratic territory – to win Michigan, for example. But for the most part, the map we will see on election night will look quite familiar. The Republicans will continue their domination of the South, the Plains and some of the Border States. The Dems will win the Pacific Coast and New England and a couple of the old industrial states.
Obama will count on his ground game… It won him the nomination and now he believes it will win him the Presidency. He hopes to increase turnout by registering new voters and persuading them to support him at the polls.
McCain has, with his selection of Governor Palin, satisfied his right wing and comes to the fight with a relatively united base of his party. It is the party that has won close elections these past two cycles and McCain wants do it one more time.
The Fukuda Solution
In my last Update I mentioned that Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda of Japan had taken a unique (though thoroughly Japanese) approach to his mounting political difficulties. He announced that he and his cabinet had, “Compiled an outline of the Comprehensive Measures for Bringing About Peace of Mind so as to respond to the rising prices and the economic downturn that are having a profound impact on the nation’s economy.”
I never saw a copy of his treatise, but today Fukuda demonstrated the way that he personally decided to “bring about peace of mind.” He quit. Enough is enough, I guess.
Schedule
September 1-4 - Republican National Convention: Saint Paul, Minnesota
Friday, September 26 – First presidential debate: University of Mississippi, Oxford, MS
Thursday, October 2 – Vice presidential debate: Washington University in St. Louis, MO Tuesday, October 7 – Second presidential debate: Belmont University, Nashville, TN Wednesday, October 15 – Third presidential debate: Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY Tuesday, November 4 – Election Day
Meanwhile, In Iraq
Lest we forget, Americans keep dying and keep being injured in Iraq and Afghanistan. The official count as of September 1, 2008, of the dead in Iraq since our involvement began on March 23, 2003 is 4,150. There have been 571 Americans killed in Afghanistan in this same time period. The Department of Defense says that more than 35,000 American service personnel have been wounded in these two theaters.
By now, the Bush Administration has begun to accomplish the elements of the end game that they described as traitorous and dangerous for the past six years. They have agreed (or so we are told) to a time table for the removal of all United States combat forces from Iraq. It is much like those that Democrats have been promoting for two years… only it is now two years and fifteen hundred casualties later.
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Robert J. Keefe
Principal – Meridian Strategies, LLC
1920 L Street, NW, Suite 410 – Washington, D. C. 20036
Telephone: 202 223-8839 – Cell: 202 255-8161 – E mail: rkeefe@verizon.net
