Washington, D.C.
September 15, 2008
Political Update
Big events keep rolling in. After Barack Obama’s megaspeech from Mile High stadium came the storms, first Gustav; then Hanna; then Ike…and now Sarah has taken up all of the oxygen in the political world. Since John McCain’s surprise announcement two weeks ago that he had selected Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to be his vice presidential running mate, she has been the center of attention and the source of a great deal of excitement in the Presidential race.
She is an attractive, interesting woman with a compelling story and interesting family. Suddenly she is on the biggest stage in the world and the target of hundreds of questions and comments. Her coming out party – the convention appearance in Minneapolis to accept the nomination of the Republican Party – was a success. She enthused the audience and delivered a tough, partisan message like VP candidates are supposed to do.
The Palin choice did what McCain it wanted to do. He solidified his base of support with the conservative and evangelicals in his party that have never been comfortable with him, and he proved that he is ready to throw the long ball to win… The polls reflected the change in excitement and momentum and blunted the post convention bump that Democrat Barack Obama was enjoying.
It has created a surreal situation that the electorate must adjust to… How can such a seemingly unqualified person be nominated for the second highest office in the land… “one heartbeat away from the Presidency.” What happened to those protestation by McCain (and every Presidential candidate) that the VP choice must be totally ready to step in and take over in case of necessity. How can such a raw and transparent political choice make sense for the candidate or for the Republic? Time will tell.
The Meltdown
But Wall Street decided to intervene and take center stage with the most significant economic crisis in many years. The collapse of major American banks and insurance companies, following the credit crunch of the mortgage market has taken the attention of the world. And it has made the economy THE top political issue in this year’s campaign.
The economic and political consequences of the situation will not be fully understood quickly. They are too immense and too far reaching. But certainly they are intrusive in the campaign as the voters try to determine which of the two candidates and parties are best equipped to deal with the new realities that we will face in the days ahead.
It would seem that the Democrats and Obama will get a bit of an advantage from the economic challenge. First, the Democrats and Obama have had substantial leads in polling on economic issues. And the timing of the crisis will dampen the Palin enthusiasm that has been built to strengthen McCain. Also, McCain has not really engaged on the economy to date, but will now be required to do so.
This hot issue will test the candidates ability to act under pressure… a pretty good field test, though they cannot really have any true impact on the situation. Congress, however, will have an ability to act and it will have pressure on it to react promptly and in meaningful ways. The schedules of Members for October are certainly in jeopardy today. They have work to do. Their campaigns will have to be put on hold.
The State of Play with 50 Days Left
The Presidency
The Electoral College is closely contested, as usual. The battleground states are almost the same as in the recent past. The national polling has been bouncing around within a very narrow range… from a plus or minus three points for either of the candidates. Here is a more detailed analysis of the analyses that are available today:
Obama McCain Spread
National Average 47.3 % 45.4 % Obama +1.9%
Favorable Ratings +17.3 +16.3 Obama +1
Electoral College 202 216 McCain +14
EC (No toss-ups) 273 265 Obama +8
Battleground States
Michigan 48.0 44.7 Obama +3.3
Ohio 45.3 46.5 McCain +1.2
Pennsylvania 47.2 45.2 Obama +2
Virginia 45.4 47.7 McCain +2.3
Colorado 47.3 44.8 Obama +2.5
Florida 44.4 48.9 McCain +4.5
Over the course of the next fifty days, the four national candidates will travel thousands of miles to greet hundreds of thousands of prospective voters and spend millions of dollars in advertising aimed at persuading the electorate to support their candidacy. It is the culmination of this two year long marathon electoral campaign that decides our national leadership.
The tempo of the campaign is now really heating up. If you look at the schedule, you will see that by one month from today, the four debates will be history. And if events keep tumbling into our lives as they have this past month, it will be a hectic and active period for the candidates to have to deal with. That could be a good test.
The United States Senate
The next Senate will likely count 56 Democrats and 44 Republican members when they gather in the Capital January 3, 2009. Democrats are poised to pick up seats in New Hampshire (Jean Shaheen defeating incumbent John Sununu); Virginia (Mark Warner defeating John Gilmore); New Mexico (Tom Udall defeating Steve Pearce); Colorado (Mark Udall defeating Bob Schaffer; and Alaska (Mark Begich defeating Ted Stevens).
No Democratic incumbent is seriously challenged and there are several other Republicans who are in close races, including Senators Gordon Smith of Oregon, Norm Coleman of Minnesota, Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina and Roger Wicker of Mississippi. In most cases, the presidential race is not a major factor in the Senate contest, but local and personal issues are controlling.
The United States House of Representatives
The next House of Representative of the 111th Congress will likely count 242 Democrats and 193 Republican members. The Democrats prospects are enhanced by the large number of retirements among the Republican membership. Nearly twenty percent of the Republican caucus is retiring this year and open seats are always more susceptible to a change in parties.
I learned a long time ago that to correctly analyze the House races takes a lot of skill and local knowledge… which I do not have, so the analysis presented here is from Charlie Cook, the pre-eminent scholar in this field.
Money
Barack Obama’s campaign took in $66 million during August – his best fund-raising month ever. John McCain’s campaign earlier reported having raised $47 million in August. One hundred and thirteen million dollars for the two campaigns in a single month would have been unthinkable when this race started three years ago, but now it is just the way things are.
We are well on our way to the most expensive campaign in world history… Actually, I am sure we have already surpassed any previous campaign totals. The final number will certainly be well over one billion dollars. WOW. And money could play a factor in the final outcome. McCain received about $85 million for the fall campaign when he accepted the GOP nomination. Rick Davis, his campaign manager suggested that the campaign will “be looking at a unified budget of over $400 million because of their national committee.”
Obama has more than 2.1 million donors. If each of Obama’s donors gave him a modest $200, he’d have $500 million to spend during the two-month general election sprint. That’s $250 million a month, $65 million a week. During the same September to November 4 period, McCain will have $85 million to spend since he has decided to take taxpayer money to finance his campaign activities – and he must respect a spending limit.
Such a massive financial advantage will allow Obama to compete in more states than McCain and force his rival to defend states that should rightfully be Republican wins. The Obama campaign announced a Florida campaign budget of just under $40 million. That will force McCain to spend there to hold the state. He then must pick the midsize-state battles he could afford while also trying to hold off a free-spending Obama in other essential big states such as Ohio, Missouri and Virginia.
All of this is predicated on the continued success of the Obama fund raising machine. It has been a marvel now for nearly two years… It now needs to keep up its pace for another two months or all was for naught.
Schedule
Friday, September 26 – First presidential debate: University of Mississippi, Oxford, MS
Thursday, October 2 – Vice presidential debate: Washington University in St. Louis, MO Tuesday, October 7 – Second presidential debate: Belmont University, Nashville, TN Wednesday, October 15 – Third presidential debate: Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY Tuesday, November 4 – Election Day
Meanwhile, In Iraq
Lest we forget, Americans keep dying and keep being injured in Iraq and Afghanistan. The official count as of September 15, 2008, of the dead in Iraq since our involvement began on March 23, 2003 is 4,158. There have been 591 Americans killed in Afghanistan since that war was begun in 2001. The Department of Defense says that more than 35,000 American service personnel have been wounded in these two theaters.
Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Michael G. Mullen are in Baghdad today to oversee the changing of command from Gen. David H. Petraeus to Gen. Raymond T. Odierno. In his first comments as commander of the multinational forces in Iraq, General Odierno said, “We must realize that these gains are fragile and reversible, and our work here is far from done.”
Odierno has been serving as Petraeus’ No. 2. Now he takes over as the United States begins preparations to withdraw 8,000 troops by early next year. The overall American military presence in Iraq includes 15 combat brigades as well as support and logistics personnel will then number about 138,000. We wish him well and success.
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Robert J. Keefe
Principal – Meridian Strategies, LLC
1920 L Street, NW, Suite 410 – Washington, D. C. 20036
Telephone: 202 223-8839 – Cell: 202 255-8161 – E mail: rkeefe@verizon.net
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