November 1, 2009
Political Update
The Political Update is back. The re-ignition issue appeared October 15 in many email boxes, but there were significant delivery problems and just a fraction of my posts were delivered. If you are interested in my “Mea Culpa” for its absence, the issue is posted at www.bobkeefedc.com . Political Update will continue to appear twice a month.
The Off Year Elections
Seldom do the elections in the year following Presidential elections make much noise. They are few. They are local – mayoral contests primarily- with just two gubernatorial contests. Somehow, this year’s roster of races has become interesting –two because of the enormity of the spending in the campaigns, and one because of the bare knuckles competition among the conservative movement in an otherwise routine Congressional race.
The governor’s race in Virginia is a done deal. The Republican candidate, Bob McDonnell is running at least twelve points ahead of Democrat Creigh Deeds. McDonnell has run a model campaign for Republicans in this political atmosphere. He is exciting the conservative base while working the independents and moderates on local economic issues. It is working. Deeds never “got it.”
New Jersey is a different case. There is nothing pretty about this race. After a lackluster term in office, Governor Jon Corzine is spending his way into a lead in these final days. His campaign is outspending his two opponents and focusing on negative ads against Republican Chris Christie – a former US Attorney. At the end of this week, Corzine will have spent nearly $140 million of his own money to win elective offices in New Jersey… one Senate race in 2000, his first Governor’s campaign in 2005, and now this extravaganza. He is likely to win.
Another big spender is also swamping his opposition just across the Hudson from the Corzine race. Michael Bloomberg, the New York City Mayor has broken his own spending record from four years ago, dropping $85.2 million on his campaign for a third term with 11 days to go until Election Day. He enjoys a 16 point lead over Democrat William Thompson Jr. and is spending just under a million dollars a day. Go, Bill! Make him spend it all!
The most interesting contest is not about money, but about ideology. I don’t know if President Barak Obama knew what he was doing when he reached into the Republican Congressional ranks and appointed John McHugh to be the Secretary of the Army. It was a great appointment for the President and the country. Secretary John McHugh served for 16 years on the House Armed Services Committee retiring as its ranking minority member. His upstate New York District includes Fort Drum – a key military installation – and the district has not been represented by a Democrat since 1870.
Mc Hugh’s nomination has set off one of the great free for all battles within the conservative political movement and the Republican Party. Eleven local Republican county chairmen anointed an assemblywoman, Dede Scozzafava, as their party’s nominee for the vacant seat. Scozzafava is a mainstream conservative by New York standards. Her voting record is to the right of her fellow Republicans in the Assembly, but she supports abortion, same-sex marriage and endorsed the Obama stimulus package. That makes her suspect.
The battle pits traditional Republican leaders like Newt Gingrich and Minority Leader John Boehner supporting their nominee, Scozzafava. But Doug Hoffman, representing New York’s Conservative Party won the backing of prominent national conservatives, including former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and commentators Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh. The combatants began to view the race for New York’s 23rd Congressional District as a struggle for the soul of the GOP. It became very nasty. So nasty that Scozzafava has now withdrawn three days before the election
Local polls had the race 35% for Hoffman; 35% for the Democrat Bill Owens; and 20% for Scozzafava. It looks like it is Hoffman’s to lose. Scozzafava endorsed Owens today.
I was hoping for a win by Dede Scozzafava – just to propose that she co-sponsor a bill with Congressman Eni Faleomavaega of American Samoa to test the press corps’ spelling skill.
There is another congressional race on tap for Tuesday… California Lt. Gov. John Garamendi is poised to take a seat vacated by another Obama appointee, Ellen Tauscher. It means that John’s lifelong dream of being Governor is over.
It should be an early election night… nothing much to stay up late for.
Health Care at Last?
Don’t look now… Health care legislation is about to be considered on the floor of the House of Representatives… and the Senate is not far behind. After the years of rhetoric and the months of nasty debate in the trenches, the first real chance for the passage of national health care reform is at hand.
There will still be twists and turns and changes in details, but I am confident that by Christmas time, President Obama will have his opportunity to sign a significant health care reform package. It will cover the basics that he outlined in his campaign… He will have succeeded in a “big one.”
The problem is that when this big one is done there is a parade of other major matters to be developed… Financial services reform is on the tracks. Something needs to be done about the Climate issue before the world meets in December to tackle that problem. We have an energy bill waiting in the wings. The economy grew last quarter, but what do we need to do to keep it growing and add jobs. And, if you have not noticed, the nation is at war – two of them, in fact. It will be a busy winter.
What a Difference a Year Makes
It was just one year ago this week that the country was celebrating the election of its new President, Barack Obama. Expectations and hopes were high as a kite. His victory brought excitement, new celebrities and a sense of accomplishment to the nation. We had just overcome racial prejudice and elected a smart, young, attractive communicator.
We had some understanding of the state of the nation that night of his celebration in Grant Park in Chicago, but I don’t think we really comprehended the depth of our economic problems… they were just becoming revealed. But on that night and in that time, we were content that we had just elected a leader who could do whatever was needed to right the ship of state. He could not leap over buildings, but he was seen to have super abilities.
The economic news was sour. The problems of the economy seemed overwhelming. The focus of the new administration had to be the economy and off it went. Between the last gasps of the Bush Administration and the early Obama actions, trillions of dollars flowed into troubled banks and companies and governments. It was Keynesian economics at a new and previously unexplored super level. It was scary.
The citizenry did not really understand what they were seeing. But they had faith in their new leader. They gave him high marks and saw the nation beginning to move into the right direction.
But it did not last. The president determined to tackle the tough political problems and to move a very aggressive legislative program. It seemed to settle into the fight over health care reform. The fight has been costly to the President. If he wins the health care fight, he will resuscitate his magic to some degree and regain some of his momentum… It is an important fight for him, and I believe he will succeed.
But for the moment, let’s look at the numbers in what is referred to as the “State of the Union” polling numbers. They are weak:
v The President’s approval rating:
Approve 52.0 %
Disapprove 43.0 %
v Is the country moving the right or wrong direction:
Right Direction 38.8%
Wrong Direction 55.0 %
(A year ago it was 21% Right Direction – 73% Wrong Direction)
v Who will you vote for in the next Congressional election:
Democratic candidate 45.0%
Republican candidate 39.5%
I’m old fashioned. I think the economy will drive the President’s popularity and that of his Democratic Party. That is what it is really all about. In that regard the most important number will be the unemployment rate, which last month hit a 26-year high of 9.8 percent.
This explains why creating jobs is a top priority in the White House and in the Democratic-led Congress. The lawmakers know their own jobs are at stake if they fail to deliver.
In next year’s election, the Democrats face a head wind. The party in power typically loses seats in the election after a new president — in this case Barack Obama — takes office. The wind could become a storm if the ranks of the unemployed swell. The rate is widely forecast to top 10 percent before going down.
Meanwhile, our Wars Continue
Lest we forget, Americans keep dying and keep being injured in Iraq and Afghanistan. The official count as of October 31, 2009, of the dead since our involvement in Iraq began on March 23, 2003 is 4,355; The dead from the war in Afghanistan from its beginning in September 2001 is 911. The count of American service personnel wounded in Iraq is now 31,527; in Afghanistan 4,198, according to the Department of Defense.
What to do about these wars, particularly the Afghan front, is a terrible problem for our decision makers and it is clearly making serious demands on our President. For me, the critical question is “Why are we there?” Certainly, President George W. Bush had good reasons to send American forces to Afghanistan in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. The attacks were planned there. The terrorists trained there. The GHQ of the sponsoring group Al Queda was there.
It made sense to attack the location that was the incubator of the deadly attacks. But that was then. We have been there for eight years now and it seems that our mission has changed. Al Queda, we are told, is no longer resident and headquartered in Afghanistan, but has migrated to Pakistan. Our enemies in Afghanistan seem to be the Taliban and such other terrorists who occupy that land. If history is any indicator, there is an unending supply of local warriors – call them Taliban or something else – that can keep a military campaign going indefinitely.
I am delighted that President Obama is making a total review of the Afghanistan situation. We need to have a clear understanding of what we are doing there. We need to identify our mission and who are friends and enemies there are. Only when that is understood can we begin to develop a total strategy for our actions there and know the total commitments we must make to achieve goals that are agreed upon.
The toughest job facing Obama in this exercise may well be to sell the results of his consultations and planning to the American people. The steady air transport loads of the casualties into the Dover Air Force Base continue to discourage the populace.
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Robert J. Keefe
TKC International, Inc.
1776 I Street, NW, Suite 900 – Washington, D. C. 20006
Telephone: 202 255-8161 – E mail: rkeefe@tkci.com
