February 15, 2009
Political Update
Wow! What a month this has been in Washington! As the town began to swell in the days just before the Inaugural, the Capital took on a different attitude; a different feel; and as it packed solid for the ceremonies, the spirit was not just of celebration, but of pure joy and camaraderie that was unique… and it has really felt good. Was it a wintertime Woodstock? I heard it described as such… It had all of the joy and friendliness of that great musical festival of the past, without the narcotic support.
There seemed to be a great weight lifted as the term of George W.
Bush ticked out and the coming of President Barack Obama finally occurred. Change and Hope is what he offered, and in these first days, he has certainly delivered on both of those commodities. And the image of a president who is enjoying his job… and his family is a most welcome sight.
But what a job he has. The weight of the problems of the nation is unprecedented. But Obama appears to enjoy the challenges. His communications skill is a delight, even while his message is grim and foreboding.
For Starters…
The new president and his team are working at a frantic pace… and covering much of the landscape of the Federal Government with new policies, new initiatives, and roll backs of failed Bush policies. What looks like a myriad of activities on a scattered front seems also to be a coordinated attack on problems far and wide, taken both for substantive change and to communicate the new day.
He seems to have a great check list of Things To Do and Things To Change… and is methodically ticking them off in rapid fashion. He is also proving that promises and statements made during the campaign have real meaning. He did call his military chieftans to the White House on Day One and order them to develop a constructive and safe exit from Iraq in a timely fashion. He did order the closing of the Guantanamo prison camp after fashioning a group of experts to review the ramifications of the action and to come up with humane and “American Value” solutions.
He did reopen the Federal Government to stem cell research. He did move to protect fragile lands. He did open new protections for Women in the workplace with the first bill he signed.
And all the while, a focus has been maintained on that monster in the room, the world economic meltdown. While we are in unknown economic territory, Obama has done two things that I really like. He has recruited the best minds in the nation, from Martin Feldstein to Robert Reich to work the problem and seek solutions. And he has used those communications skills he has to level with the American people to make sure they understand the scope of the problem and to enlist them in personal sacrifice and support. So far, progress against the problem appears to be paltry, but the people really believe that at last, we have a competent team working the case.
Throughout the discussions of the amounts of funds that are being crafted and spent, I have been reminded that it was another Senator from Illinois who gave the nation the best line about such large Federal outlays. As President Lyndon B. Johnson proceeded to have a “guns and butter” approach to the monetary demands of the Vietnam War while creating his massive Great Society social programs, it was his friend Everett Dirksen, the Republican Senate Minority Leader from Illinois who opined,” Spending a billion here and a billion there, pretty soon it adds up to real money.” We are there again, it seems. Interestingly, Obama sat in the Senate Seat previously occupied by Dirksen.
Is it Working?
How is our young President doing? His first 25 days have not been
easy, not been without problems, but overall, he has seen some real success. His approval ratings are running in the 63% to 76% positive and confidence in his abilities and policies has been gradually reinforcing.
Obama has stumbled a bit with nominees. Three of them have failed for failing to pay taxes and one dropped out of consideration because of policy disagreements. Four weeks into his administration, President Barack Obama is still searching for secretaries of Commerce and Health and Human Services.
But six out of 10 Americans think Obama is doing a good job choosing members of his Cabinet, according to a national poll. The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released this week suggests that 61 percent of those questioned give the president a thumbs-up when it comes to choosing his Cabinet, with 38 percent saying Obama is doing a poor job selecting the top officials in his administration.
In this same polling sample, 80% say that he is doing a fine job of providing strong leadership for the country, 76% say he is doing a good jog handling foreign policy and 72% say he is doing a good job handling the economy.
His first priority is the economy. His response to that challenge is in the economic stimulus bill that has just passed the Congress and in a number of other issues still being unrolled… measures to restructure the banking and finance regulations, housing relief and energy measures.
And this is where the rubber has hit the road. For all of the rhetoric about the importance of quick action and cooperation that had come out of the Republicans in recent months, they have taken a totally negative attitude. None of the House Republicans supported the stimulus measure in its several votes in that body. Three Senate Republicans made the difference in the Senate, giving the President 61 votes to push the bill through the Senate.
The President seems to have determined that he must continue to campaign to sustain the support he needs to win the contests in Congress that will determine his success or failure. After just three weeks of working from the White House, he has taken to the hustings to meet in ‘Town Hall” settings to promote his ideas and to keep in touch with “real people.”
Bipartisanship
Bipartisanship seems to be a value that politicians can laud, but not practice. In less than a month, the President’s dream of having a true bipartisan governing alliance has proven to be unavailable.
If it is not possible to break a single vote away in the Republican caucus to support what everyone admits is a “do or die” piece of legislation designed to save the American economy and supported by three-fourths of the electorate, it is hard to see how we can expect any two party support for more normal issues.
When I came to Washington, a long time ago, I quickly learned that every Representative and Senator is in business for himself. They, alone, are responsible to the constituents that elected them and they must serve them in the way they believe they want them to do so. Party labels and loyalty do not count for so much in the American political scheme. Perhaps we have arrived at a situation where there are really few or no moderates in the Congress… that all of the Democrats are ideological leftists and all of the Republicans are die hard conservatives. That is hard to believe…
But there are signs of that being true. I received a vote count on an important issue that will come to the Congress some time this year or next… A climate bill designed to provide an American solution to the emissions of green house gases. The bill proposes to install a “cap and trade” system to regulate the emissions situation, similar to the one used in Europe and Japan. The early roll call shows 163 Representative expected to support the bill and 146 to oppose it. Of the 163 “yea voters”, all but three are Democrats. Of the 146 who oppose it, all but two are Republicans.
This is an important issue that is controversial, but one that has had a bipartisan split in both directions. The positions of John McCain and Barack Obama on this issue during their recent campaign were identical. The elected representatives just plain see issues quite differently.
Election Results – still coming in..
While Washington is busy with big bills and fancy happenings, the count still goes on in Minnesota to determine who will represent that state in the United States Senate. A three judge panel is in business there trying to determine which votes to count and how many of them are for Norm Coleman and how many for Al Fanken.
On the basis of the votes that are already counted, Democrat Franken is leading by 225 votes. But there are challenged bundles of votes that were set aside by prior arbiters of the contest. Lawyers for Coleman are arguing that the Constitution demands the counting of every legitimate vote — even if you have to bend the rules — and lawyers for Franken are insisting on a by-the-book reading of state law that would limit the number counted to only legally cast ballots.
On last Friday, the judges tossed out most of the 19 categories of rejected absentee ballots they were considering for a second look, making it clear that they won’t open and count any ballots that don’t comply with state law. That looks like a plus for Franken. His lawyers had urged the judges to turn down 17 of the 19 categories and said Friday that they had very nearly done it. But Coleman’s attorneys saw it differently, saying that the ruling leaves untouched about 3,500 of the 4,800 rejected absentee ballots they want the court to open and count, enough to make it possible for Coleman to overcome Franken’s 225-vote certified recount lead.
At the end of their week’s work, the judges got unanimous applause when they promised to run “a streamlined trial” with results soon. But they did not define “soon”.
Meanwhile, In Iraq
Lest we forget, Americans keep dying and keep being injured in
Iraq and Afghanistan. The official count as of February 15, 2009, of
the dead in Iraq since our involvement began on March 23, 2003 is 4,243, just 22 deaths this year. There have been 651 Americans killed in Afghanistan since that war was begun in 2001 and the current rate is the same as in Iraq. The Department of Defense says that more than 35,000 American service personnel have been wounded in these two theaters.
There was another election in Iraq… the first that was run by the Iraqis. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law coalition made spectacular gains in southern Shia areas and easily dominated the Baghdad region. The coalition won 38% of votes in Baghdad and 37% in Iraq’s second city Basra – curbing the previous dominance of rival Shia parties. Meanwhile, the once-dominant Sunni Arabs regained political power in other parts of the country – having boycotted the 2005 election.
With the situation improving in Iraq, the focus of US attention must turn to the other war in Afghanistan and that one is not going so well. The casualty count there is now equal to that in Iraq. The level of violence seems greater and the influence of the Taliban has been growing. President Obama’s agent for Pakistan and Afghanistan, Richard Holbrooke, is making his first trip to the region. He has said that he considers the Afghan situation to be more dangerous and more intractable than Iraq. Centuries of history make his concerns real.
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Robert J. Keefe
Principal – Meridian Strategies, LLC
1920 L Street, NW, Suite 410 – Washington, D. C. 20036
Telephone: 202 223-8839 – Cell: 202 255-8161 – E mail:
