March 1, 2009
Political Update
It has not taken long to understand that when President Barack Obama promised change, he meant BIG change. He means many changes. And he means to change things quickly. One has to believe that the President has been thinking about this new job he has for a long time… He seems to have made a rather thorough review of our nation, studying it closely, looking for imperfections and looking for improvements that could make things better for the country and its people. And now, he is planning to make the changes the he feels are necessary.
His projected agenda is robust and ambitious. But no one can say he didn’t tell us what was coming. The fact is that his program is precisely as advertised, from his determination to tackle the health care problems to the tax increases for the upper income group. It is just that he is attacking such a tough group of issues at once that looks daunting. His goals are high, but so are the obstacles that he must clear to achieve them.
Now we will see how effective he can be in getting the Congress to pass the controversial measures he has tabled. It is not easy to project the degrees of difficulty in the key elements of his program… His first and most important challenge is the economic crisis. That has shown to be difficult in itself… requiring him to compromise to get the three Republican Senate votes to pass his program.
He is asking Congress to enact a number of contentious measures that have been defied decision in calmer times. His budget proposal cuts subsidies for big farms; combats global warming with a pollution tax on industries; raise taxes on the wealthy; make big changes to health care, including lower reimbursements for Medicare and Medicaid treatments and prescription drugs.
Each of these proposals is guaranteed to begin a major fight in Congress and ignite fierce debates across the country. The President is proposing to move these measures and other like matters in a concerted manner in an interrelated plan that he sees as important to level the economic playing field for all Americans.
That was the Week that Was
When we look back on this current crisis, I believe that last week will be seen as the time that marked a significant passage. Americans have known for some time that the economy was in unparalleled problems. They have seen their neighbors if not themselves lose jobs, savings, and confidence. But last week the crisis seemed to have been transformed from something transitory to something much more serious. It seems to be resisting the myriad of remedies that is being applied.
In crucial moments, previous presidents have used the venue of the House
of Representatives to reassure the American people. Lyndon Johnson’s
speech after the Kennedy assassination, Gerald Ford’s speech after the resignation of Richard Nixon are just two in my memory that rose to the level of importance as Barack Obama’s address Tuesday night. In times like these, the nation welcomes a big speech in a big venue about a topic that is important to their lives. The president had the nation’s attention, and his speech rose to the challenge and opportunity.
Last week’s speech was the functional equivalent of a State of the Union address, though Obama technically won’t give one of those until next year. It was in the same setting and it laid out the President’s analysis of the nation’s problems and his plans to address them. But
the Obama speech was different. States of the Union addresses are
generally dreary affairs, important sounding laundry lists of programs and proposals that everyone knows are going nowhere. Not so with Obama’s pseudo-SOTU address.
The President’s rhetoric was tough. The challenges he faces are daunting and he minced no words in explaining them. The economy contracted by a stunning 6.2 percent in the final three months of 2008, its worst showing in a quarter-century. Obama says the crisis calls for gutsy actions. He seems to be ready to take whatever is necessary.
The president pointedly used the word “rebuild” throughout his address.
But in truth the blueprint he set out last week was not only to rebuild the country, but really to build a very different country. We don’t yet know what Obama’s new America will look like. No one, not even Franklin Roosevelt, knew in March 1933 what New Deal America would look like when the president was finished. But one thing seems quite certain. If the Barack Obama succeeds the country will not look like the America of February 2009. That is the real meaning of last week.
The Republicans are in disarray. They cannot seem to get their voice. The CPAC conference did not produce a leader for the party. The response to the Obama speech was more of a tragedy for a bright young Governor than a serious challenge from the opposition party. Their challenge is great, too. The polls show that the country clearly wants its young president to succeed. The public is willing to give him a break. But it is also giving him more leeway than any president of our time.
The Battle Ahead
The battle plan has now been unveiled. It was outlined by Obama in the budget proposal he made on Thursday. It is an expansive list of programs that will require a number of hard-fought legislative battles.
The president seems to understand what he is in for. He began his campaign for his budget package in his weekly radio and internet address. The message was populist and his tone was feisty. He expressed appreciation for the opponents of the program, depicting them as champions of the interests of the wealthiest few with the help of powerful lobbyists.
He noted that “passing this budget won’t be easy because it represents a threat to the status quo in Washington. They are gearing up for a fight,” he said, “And so am I.”
I am reminded of the Health Care War of 1993. President Bill
Clinton determined to develop and pass a comprehensive health care plan.
It would reach into every corner of the profession… and affect many, many vested interests. First Lady Hillary Clinton, you will recall, led the effort and managed a broad based effort to remake the health care system from top to bottom.
Hillary’s crusade united and ignited those vested interests, from the doctors to the hospitals, to the pharmaceutical houses and everyone in between. They reacted en masse… and in a historic manner.
Never before had so many affected business people been so frightened by government action. The response was truly amazing, and, in my opinion, changed the way Washington worked…
With so many wealthy targets so thoroughly scared that their livelihood was at risk, they did what seemed natural to them. They determined to throw money at the problem. Task forces of industries were formed. Trade associations went on red alert. Saatchi and Saatchi opened a whole new ad agency to react to the problem. Teams of visitors flew to Washington to sell the anti-Hillary story. The campaign would prove to be a bonanza to public affairs consultants, ad agencies and lobbyists, and leave us with the memory of that great television ad series featuring Harry and Louise.
Well, it worked. The business community had met the acid test and succeeded. They proved that American public policy could be impacted by the clever spending of money. They saw that putting money into one end of the policy process got the desired result out of the other end of it.
I am convinced that the Health Care War of 1993 really opened the faucets of lobbying funding for Washington in ways different than before… and public policy has been more at greater risk from financial forces ever since.
That battle was pretty one-sided. The Clinton team was not as savvy as the industry. They never got their act together. But this time can be different. The president’s remark that he “is gearing up for a fight” implies that the Obama forces are prepared to fight fire with fire… and this time they have the ammunition to make their effort a successful one. They have the organization that they used to win the White House still in place across the country. They have the skilled media and internet operators available to support the president’s
positions. It will not be a one-sided fight this time.
Little Progress in Minnesota
Minnesota remains under-represented in the United States Senate.
The Board of Elections has declared Democrat Al Franken the winner by
225 votes out of about 2.8 million cast. But Republican Norm Coleman has challenged the state board of elections decision and now, a three-judge panel there is hearing arguments in Coleman’s challenge.
Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty explains “Coleman has raised irregularities that rise to the level of legal issues, legitimate legal issues, that could change the result. It’s moved from a simple thing you can track, like vote counts, to pretty complex legal issues, so for average people to be able to guess how it’s going to come out is challenging,” Pawlenty said. “There are constitutional issues and obscure election law issues that are being sorted out by teams of lawyers and the courts and the like.”
And Minnesota law says that a certificate of election cannot be issued while a challenge is being processed. So there still is one empty seat in the Senate.
Meanwhile, In Iraq
Lest we forget, Americans keep dying and keep being injured in
Iraq and Afghanistan. The official count as of March 1, 2009, of the
dead in Iraq since our involvement began on March 23, 2003 is 4,253.
There have been 660 Americans killed in Afghanistan since that war was begun in 2001. The Department of Defense says that more than 46,000 American service personnel have been wounded in these two theaters
On Friday, the President Obama announced his timetable for ending hostilities in Iraq. He was faithful to his campaign promises, but it contained some important adjustments. The president lengthened his 16-month timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. combat troops to 19 months, thus adopting the middle of the three options the Pentagon studied. He set a ceiling of 50,000 troops for the “residual” force he has always said would remain. The plan will allow U.S. commanders to maintain a large force in the country through Iraq’s crucial parliamentary elections at the end of this year.
The President characterized Iraq not as a fiasco to be abandoned but as a “great nation” whose “future . . . is inseparable from the future of the broader Middle East.” He said his administration aimed for “a new era of American leadership and engagement” in the region and “will work to promote an Iraqi government that is just, representative and accountable, and that provides neither support nor safe haven to terrorists.
The president briefed a number of the congressional leaders, including Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). Mr. McCain called Obama’s plan “reasonable.”
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Robert J. Keefe
Principal – Meridian Strategies, LLC
1920 L Street, NW, Suite 410 – Washington, D. C. 20036
Telephone: 202 223-8839 – Cell: 202 255-8161 – E mail:
