February 1, 2010
Washington, D.C.
February 1, 2010
Political Update
This Update is being written two weeks late… for no other reason than I wanted to wait to see what happened in the United States Senate race in Massachusetts. And I am glad I did. I would have written something encouraging to the Democrats and been dead wrong.
There was certainly nothing encouraging to President Barack Obama and the Democrats from the victory of Senator-elect Scott Brown. The Republican victory does so many nasty things to the Dems. It destroys that fragile 60 vote margin in the Senate that is so important for the conduct of contentious business…and contentious business seems to be all that is pending anymore. It anoints a new, attractive partisan Republican personality from New England. It infuses hope and life in the moribund Republican organization. It makes a whole new health care bill a requirement.
I have considered myself a Massachusetts expert among my colleagues since I designed a win there for the Hawkish Henry Jackson in the presidential primary of 1976. It is not simply the pointy headed liberal enclave of the Harvardians. Rather it has a heavily middle class, ethnic population – the kind of voters who are hurting badly during this current recession. I learned my Massachusetts politics from Senator Ted Kennedy himself. He was a great friend of my candidate, Scoop Jackson, and wanted to help him in his presidential race from behind the scenes. That prompted a delightfully long afternoon in his Senate office, sipping on white wine and marveling at the collective political minutiae about his state that Ted had collected. He took me town by town, pointing out pitfalls, phonies, opportunities and generally important information that one can use in a campaign. It was a display of his attention to the details of his electorate that kept him safely in the Senate for those forty-nine years
But Massachusetts, like every other state, is changing rapidly. Demographic changes continue at a rapid rate as immigration and internal migration has become so constant. It is significant everywhere. The disappearing loyalty of the electorate to the political parties continues and quickens. Massachusetts isn’t the Democratic state I remembered. It is like almost every other state, populated by people who think and vote independently, regardless of their registration.
And in Massachusetts, we saw the depth of the anger and concern the people hold about their current circumstances and the inability of their government to resolve the problems. It is fair to suggest that the Obama Administration has had its eye on balls other than those that the people feel hurt them… and it had better get a better focus, if it has any hope to continue in government and lead the people.
The President Reacts
I would suggest that to call this event a “wake-up call” would be too tame in view of the reaction of President Obama. He has responded with vigor… with passion. He is not taking things lightly and is reverting to full campaign mode.
Clearly he believes that the public are not getting the messages he has been sending and that they are misreading the tea leaves. He intends to help them understand what he is doing and what results from his activity. In just a few days he has:
- Given a rousing State of the Union Message – a bit “in your face” to the opposition.
- Invaded the Republican Congressional Caucus to go mono e mano with his antagonists.
- Visited Town Hall Meeting in Tampa, Florida with VP Joe Biden.
- Hosted a Jobs Tax Credit event in Baltimore, Maryland.
- Presented his annual Budget message in a series of speeches, and
- He gave an interview on YouTube.
The campaign to regain the high ground of the debate in Washington seems essential to the success of the Obama presidency. With the loss of the 60 vote majority in the Senate, he knows that it will be a fight to get any bill through that body. He believes that by the force of his presentations, he can make the difference. It worked for him in the campaign… now let’s see how it works from the Oval Office.
Maddening items that matter
Now that the chickens are beginning to roost in unpleasant places, it is worth taking a look at the items that have created the mindset that is guiding so many of our countrymen. And we will start with a whopper… government spending, in particular for the moment, the prospective health care measure
None of us can really get our arms around the numbers…. They are way too large for our comprehension. But let’s try. The Democrats have tabled a Health Care bill with a $900 billion price tag. You have heard that dozens of times, but what on earth does it mean.
Surprise, surprise… That great big impressive number is misleading. Actually, misleading in both directions. First of all… the bill is for the first ten years of the program, meaning that the bill will cost an average of $90 billion per year. That still sounds big… scary big, but when you put it into the context of national health-care spending it is almost a rounding error. We spent $2.3 trillion on health care last year. The new program cost is less than five percent of the current annual spending… less than a good tip. So is it expensive???
But do not get in line for your free cat-scan just yet. The program – should it pass – will not get started for a couple of years… 2014, to be exact. The startup time is one good reason for the time lag… they have to get your hospital rooms ready and your cat-san machine tuned up. But in addition to this legitimate lag, the delay will also make the price look lower. The CBO is measuring over a ten year period, so three years without spending will make it look much lower. If you really want to check on costs, you have to begin your count in an early years of operations, 2016 would be a good time to start. Under that more practical tablulation, the cost would be about $150 Billion per year… still not a major factor in the total health care cost since inflation in spending will keep that number in the 4 percent range.
So this big bad Medical program that scares everybody is really sort of a marginal expenditure, in the true scheme of things. What is the big deal?
Then we have the budget deficit. Wow. For my long career in politics, I have disliked the politicization of deficits. That is somewhat because it has always been the Republicans railing against Democrats for being profligate spenders… The annual rite of Congress to legislate a higher ceiling for the National Debt is a theatrical spectacle. The party out of power rails against the spending habits of the government… the incumbents try to duck
Now, as a result of what we pleasantly refer to as the “financial melt down” the numbers of the debt and its resultant service costs are astronomical and unfathomable. But the game goes on and provides a rationale for people to get mad at their government. There is a movement afoot to create a bi-partisan commission of some kind to develop a plan to deal with the enormous debt we hold. That is a good idea and would really be neat if it was empowered to do something to resolve the problem.
Prudent budget management is essential for several reasons…
- The imbalance is not sustainable… Something will have to give, and relatively soon.
- Current projections indicate that the deficits will be in the 4+ percent of GDP and be rising as the nation crawls out of the Great Recession… and that is too high.
- The risks to the financial market from the large deficits will endanger the rest of the economy and it will undermine our standing in the world.
- And, as important as any of the above, the service on this increased debt would mean moving public expenditures away from public services, security costs, and needed investment into unproductive interest payments.
There is a broad consensus growing that we need to lower our deficits – and do it quickly. As with all public policy questions, the problem is how to do it. Thus, the suggestion (again) is to get a blue ribbon panel studying and planning an escape from this problem even if the seven Republicans who sponsored a resolution to appoint one ran from the idea once the President endorsed it. It appears he will do it himself…
It is an Election Year
I came to work in the Congress in the first year of a term. We worked to make the world a better place, developing ideas, creating concepts and sought to pass bills to improve life and governance. Then the Christmas holidays happened and everybody went home. When they came back to Capitol Hill, everything had changed. I could not believe it. It was now an election year and that was all that was on anybody’s mind. Our work turned almost exclusively to winning the election.
Well, that is where we are. It is now an election year and all eyes are on the campaign.
It is starting early. The Democrats in Illinois changed the date of the Illinois primary in 2008 to accommodate their favorite son’s presidential ambition. It helped Obama by giving him an early victory. But now they are stuck with a very early primary election… In fact, it is tomorrow, February 2. Illinois was always early… the third Tuesday in March – a St. Patrick’s Day sort of time. But now, it will happen before they turn the Chicago River green to celebrate the Irish saint’s day. Both parties have important contests for Governor and Senator.
The Pew Research organization tell us that about half (52%) of registered voters would like to see their own representative re-elected and e 34% say that most members of Congress should be re-elected. That sounds OK, but it is really quite low… the most negative in the past two decades. Low measures on these questions usually come true. The ratings were low in the 1994 and 2006 cycles, when the party in power suffered large losses in midterm elections.
Once more, this year it is the independents who are making their voices heard. Only 42% of independent voters want to see their own representative re-elected and just 25% would like to see most members of Congress re-elected.
As always, all 435 members of the House of Representatives will be up for election this year. Currently, the Democrats have 257 members; the Republican 178. The 2010 class of Senators who are up for election number 35 of which 18 are Democrats and 17 are Republican. Four Republican Senators are retiring and two Democrats are doing so.
Meanwhile, our Wars Continue
Lest we forget, Americans keep dying and keep being injured in Iraq and Afghanistan. The official count as of October 31, 2009, of the dead since our involvement in Iraq began on March 23, 2003 is 4,375; the dead from the war in Afghanistan from its beginning in September 2001 is 978. The count of American service personnel wounded in Iraq is now 31,616; in Afghanistan 4,748, according to the Department of Defense.
While the war wears on and demands on service personnel are continuing and severe, the Senate held a hearing today to review – and hopefully end – the “Don’t Ask; Don’t Tell” policy which defines the rules for gay members of our military.
The Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staffs, Admiral Mike Mullen, gave a strikingly candid and strong statement supporting the end of the Don’t Ask era and the integration of gays into the forces…a strong support for civil rights in the military. It appears that the end is in sight, but not until the military takes a year to study how to handle the new reality. I have a feeling Senator Carl Levin is planning a coup to sneak a cancellation of the policy on the Armed Services Authorization Bill. Hooray.
- – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - – - -
Robert J. Keefe
TKC International, Inc.
1776 I Street, NW, Suite 900 – Washington, D. C. 20006
Telephone: 202 255-8161 – E mail: rkeefe@tkci.com
