Washington, D.C.
February 15, 2010
Political Update
Today we celebrate Presidents’ Day, showing our respect and appreciation for the 44 men who have been the Chief Executives of the United States. It is a day off. It is a great day to shop the sales. Others do more… Today the Harry S. Truman Library and Museum in Independence, Missouri, will celebrate Presidents Day by serving fresh-baked presidential cookies to visitors, who can meet Harry Truman, as portrayed by a historical re-enactor.
Beginning at 10 a.m Truman Library volunteers bake selections from the “Presidential Cookies” cookbook and visitors will be able to sample cookie recipes spanning four centuries, including: Brandy Snaps (John Adams); Black Pepper Cookies (Zachary Taylor); Chocolate Macaroons (Benjamin Harrison); Coconut Balls (Harry Truman); Chocolate Nut Drop Cookies (Lyndon Johnson);Oatmeal-Chocolate Chunk Cookies (George W. Bush); Shortbread Cookies (Barack Obama). I think I have found something I like about George W, better than Barack Obama… though the Brandy Snaps are the most intriguing – those Adams boys were snappers!
What is Next?
It seems like we are having an intermission on government. It is not just the snow storm that shut down Washington or the extended February holidays. We seem to have come to a pause in the action. It started when the Massachusetts voters elected Republican Scott Brown to the Senate to upset the Democrats plans to move the Health Care Bill and a number of other of their legislative priorities.
Democratic leaders had not figured on this. Ted Kennedy’s seat was sacrosanct… Massachusetts is the most Red of any state in the country… it could not fall to the Republicans. But it did. State Senator Brown defeated the incumbent Attorney General of the state to become the forty-first Republican member of the United States Senate. And, as we know, the difference between forty and forty-one members of the minority in the Senate is more than the difference between day and night.
Senator Brown’s election changed the entire political landscape. Not only did it remove the filibuster-proof majority of the Democrats, it seems to have changed the entire dynamic of the political scene. It affirmed the voter revolt against the Democrats – something they had been self-denying… It foresaw bad times in the mid-term elections for all Democrats. If it could happen in Massachusetts, it could happen anywhere, maybe everywhere.
So we have this pause while the smart people in the leadership of the Democratic Party figure out what they will do to move legislation, but more importantly, how they will protect their members from that nasty mood of the voters.
We have determined that the Health Care legislation is no longer the most important project in Washington. We are now into worrying about the economy… in particular, jobs. Jobs are the flavor of the month. We need to create jobs, or many members of the Congress will lose theirs. The first take on this problem has not fared well. Senators Baucus and Grassley crafted a comprehensive jobs bill – bi-partisan, tax cuts for the Republicans and various pieces of pork for the Democrats.
The President is a different guy these days… more like the Obama we met in the campaign… sort of “in your face” to the opposition while describing his activity as bi-partisan in nature, challenging his opponents on issues and space. He has invited the Republicans to join him in a discussion session on February 25 in a C-Span broadcast meeting to attempt to iron out a health care package that can be passed. Republicans fear a trap…
Obama is also into a “do it yourself” mode. Unable to get Congressional approval of a commission to examine the national debt, he is moving to do it by executive order. He was able to get the Congress to add a “pay as you go” provision to the “must pass” bill raising the national debt. Expect to see more of him in the next weeks as he moves to regain some traction and get his administration moving.
It is snowing again today in Washington. That will postpone Congressional action for another day or two… I am interested to see what they will do when they get back into action after this protracted recess.
Bye Bayh
Much to the chagrin of Democrats here and across the nation, Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) announced this afternoon that he would not be a candidate for re-election this year. His decision has put the Indiana Senate seat in play – perhaps turning it over to the Republicans this year. In the calculations looking ahead to the 2010 Senate elections, Bayh was always considered a safe bet to be re-elected. He has won five statewide elections in Indiana – by increasingly wide margins. He has raised more than $13 million for this campaign. His decision to retire hurts the Democrats chances to maintain their majority in the Senate.
The Republican opposition is not set, though former Senator Dan Coats is considered to be the most likely winner of the Republican primary. Coats followed his patron, Dan Quayle into the seat when Quayle became Vice President. He retired after a term and a half when facing a race against Bayh. Bayh was running almost two to one ahead of Coats and had a mammoth war chest. Since he left the Senate, Coats served as the US Ambassador to Germany and has, for the past ten years, been employed in Washington as a lobbyist and foreign agent. He established a residence in Virginia and voted there for ten years. In other words, his vita is not the most desirable one for the electorate this year.
Bayh, who served as Indiana’s governor for eight years before becoming a Senator, said in his valedictory that he considered himself an executive, not a legislator, and thinks he can serve more effectively in some other role – not continuing in what he describes as a “dysfunctional Congress.” He mentioned potential roles as a University administrator, a foundation leader or “creating jobs managing a business.” An Indianapolis friend of mine, the CEO of a major company, who knows Evan Bayh as well as anyone suggests that he is a great manager. Bayh ran Indiana extremely well and made decisions with precision. My friend says that Evan will make a great CEO – of a university, a company or a foundation.
Bayh came to Washington in the worst kind of situation for a hard charger. He was a junior member of the minority in the Senate… and it stayed that way for eight long years. A senator friend of mine who came to the Senate in 2006 asked me about my friend Bayh, “Why doesn’t Evan like his job?” he asked me. I noticed that he seemed more interested and more involved these past three years when, in the majority, he could make things happen. But the dysfunction finally got to him when the bi-partisan debt project collapsed last month.
The timing of Bayh’s decision came on precisely the last day he could do so without getting into the race. The deadline for entry (by filing petitions signed by thousands of Hoosiers) is noon tomorrow. It is unlikely that any candidate will qualify and the State Democratic Committee will be empowered to fill the nomination. Three Democratic Congressmen are the most likely to step up for the race. They are Brad Ellsworth, the former mayor of Evansville Barron Hill, from Southeastern Indiana, and Joe Donnelly from the South Bend region. None have statewide recognition and they will be considered the underdog in the race.
(For the record: I met Evan Bayh when he was five years old and I was his dad’s chief of staff in the Senate. I have been involved and observing his career and his life from an insider’s view for lo these many years. He is quite an amazing and competent man.)
Tea Party Politics
The Tea Party movement met for the first time in convention last weekend at Opryland in Nashville Tennessee. Among their announced goals was to develop an organization to promote the goals of the movement and coordinate the activity of their many individual local clubs. Good luck and God bless them. I did not attend the sessions… the $549 registration fee was just too much for me. But I can give you a report on who the people were that did attend and what happened.
Over the years I have had my experiences with third party and rump movements like the Tea Baggers and they are quite predictable. The reports from Nashville confirmed my thinking. Today’s Tea Baggers are yesterday’s Reform Partyers, or Peace and Freedom Partyers, American Independent Partyers or like minded political self governance adherents. The usual lot includes several political “has beens” who are in denial – like Pat Buchanan and Mike Gravel and Alan Keyes – who seek to lead a movement when they lost their welcome in the major parties. And then there are the self-starters who have strong policy views, strong senses of self righteousness and little interest or ability to compromise.
The Tea Baggers are in the latter category. The movement has been evolving from small individual groups around the country. By now there are several significant groupings… the Tea Party Express, the Tea Party Patriots and the Tea Party Nation, to mention a few. Former Republican Congressional Leader Dick Armey has promoted and funded Tea Baggers through his political group, Freedom Works and Fox commentator Glen Beck has championed the same groups.
The reason individuals are drawn to these movements is that they generally do not get along with other political activists. They cannot or will not compromise their own views to coalesce with others. They want it their way, or no way. They are strong willed. They do not compromise. They are easily slighted and never forget or forgive a slight. They will make a lot of noise individually and in small groups. But even with Armey’s money, I do not believe they will be able to get their act together.
I was asked to help the Reform Party build and manage a national convention in 2000. The Perot candidacy had earned the party a significant bounty – some $16+ million – from the Federal Election Program – $2.8 million designated specifically for a national nominating convention. The party had never held a nominating convention before and the new leadership of the party wanted to hold a significant convention as a party building exercise. But two forces interrupted that project. The long time leadership of the Party – Perot agents- and the new force – candidate Pat Buchanan – had their eyes on that money.
The funds became the focus of major internecine warfare. When the smoke cleared, they held a convention of little significance. Buchanan claimed and spent all of the money, much of it on legal fees from internecine fights.
Meanwhile, our Wars Continue
Lest we forget, Americans keep dying and keep being injured in Iraq and Afghanistan. The official count as of October 31, 2009, of the dead since our involvement in Iraq began on March 23, 2003 is 4,376; the dead from the war in Afghanistan from its beginning in September 2001 is 990. The count of American service personnel wounded in Iraq is now 31,626; in Afghanistan 9,496 according to the Department of Defense.
We are rolling the dice in Afghanistan right now. The “surge” strategy that worked so well in Iraq is being implemented in Operation Moshtarak (Dari for “Together”). The goal is to conquer, control and maintain Marjah, a major Taliban stronghold in Helmand province. The city remains the command and control hub for the insurgency. Marjah is also considered to be one of the main narcotics centers in Helmand. In preparation for Operation Moshtarak, insurgents have constructed tunnels and bunkers, brought in heavy weapons, set booby traps and strewn landmines around Marjah. It is reported that 90% of the population remain in the town, trapped by IED belts that ring navigable terrain.
It will be a month before we will have a good evaluation. Keep your fingers crossed.
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Robert J. Keefe
TKC International, Inc.
1776 I Street, NW, Suite 900 – Washington, D. C. 20006
Telephone: 202 255-8161 – E mail: rkeefe@tkci.com
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