February 15, 2010

Washington, D.C.

February 15, 2010

Political Update

            Today we celebrate Presidents’ Day, showing our respect and appreciation for the 44 men who have been the Chief Executives of the United States.  It is a day off.  It is a great day to shop the sales.  Others do more…  Today the Harry S. Truman Library and Museum in Independence, Missouri, will celebrate Presidents Day by serving fresh-baked presidential cookies to visitors, who can meet Harry Truman, as portrayed by a historical re-enactor.
            Beginning at 10 a.m Truman Library volunteers bake selections from the “Presidential Cookies” cookbook and visitors will be able to sample cookie recipes spanning four centuries, including:  Brandy Snaps (John Adams); Black Pepper Cookies (Zachary Taylor); Chocolate Macaroons (Benjamin Harrison); Coconut Balls (Harry Truman); Chocolate Nut Drop Cookies (Lyndon Johnson);Oatmeal-Chocolate Chunk Cookies (George W. Bush); Shortbread Cookies (Barack Obama).  I think I have found something I like about George W, better than Barack Obama… though the Brandy Snaps are the most intriguing – those Adams boys were snappers!

What is Next?

            It seems like we are having an intermission on government.  It is not just the snow storm that shut down Washington or the extended February holidays.  We seem to have come to a pause in the action.  It started when the Massachusetts voters elected Republican Scott Brown to the Senate to upset the Democrats plans to move the Health Care Bill and a number of other of their legislative priorities.

            Democratic leaders had not figured on this.  Ted Kennedy’s seat was sacrosanct… Massachusetts is the most Red of any state in the country… it could not fall to the Republicans.  But it did.  State Senator Brown defeated the incumbent Attorney General of the state to become the forty-first Republican member of the United States Senate.  And, as we know, the difference between forty and forty-one members of the minority in the Senate is more than the difference between day and night. 

            Senator Brown’s election changed the entire political landscape.  Not only did it remove the filibuster-proof majority of the Democrats, it seems to have changed the entire dynamic of the political scene.  It affirmed the voter revolt against the Democrats – something they had been self-denying…  It foresaw bad times in the mid-term elections for all Democrats.  If it could happen in Massachusetts, it could happen anywhere, maybe everywhere. 

            So we have this pause while the smart people in the leadership of the Democratic Party figure out what they will do to move legislation, but more importantly, how they will protect their members from that nasty mood of the voters. 

            We have determined that the Health Care legislation is no longer the most important project in Washington.  We are now into worrying about the economy… in particular, jobs.  Jobs are the flavor of the month.  We need to create jobs, or many members of the Congress will lose theirs.  The first take on this problem has not fared well.  Senators Baucus and Grassley crafted a comprehensive jobs bill – bi-partisan, tax cuts for the Republicans and various pieces of pork for the Democrats. 

            The President is a different guy these days… more like the Obama we met in the campaign… sort of “in your face” to the opposition while describing his activity as bi-partisan in nature, challenging his opponents on issues and space.  He has invited the Republicans to join him in a discussion session on February 25 in a C-Span broadcast meeting to attempt to iron out a health care package that can be passed.  Republicans fear a trap…

            Obama is also into a “do it yourself” mode.  Unable to get Congressional approval of a commission to examine the national debt, he is moving to do it by executive order.  He was able to get the Congress to add a “pay as you go” provision to the “must pass” bill raising the national debt.   Expect to see more of him in the next weeks as he moves to regain some traction and get his administration moving.

            It is snowing again today in Washington.  That will postpone Congressional action for another day or two… I am interested to see what they will do when they get back into action after this protracted recess.

Bye Bayh

            Much to the chagrin of Democrats here and across the nation, Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) announced this afternoon that he would not be a candidate for re-election this year.  His decision has put the Indiana Senate seat in play – perhaps turning it over to the Republicans this year.  In the calculations looking ahead to the 2010 Senate elections, Bayh was always considered a safe bet to be re-elected.  He has won five statewide elections in Indiana – by increasingly wide margins.  He has raised more than $13 million for this campaign.  His decision to retire hurts the Democrats chances to maintain their majority in the Senate.

            The Republican opposition is not set, though former Senator Dan Coats is considered to be the most likely winner of the Republican primary.  Coats followed his patron, Dan Quayle into the seat when Quayle became Vice President.  He retired after a term and a half when facing a race against Bayh.  Bayh was running almost two to one ahead of Coats and had a mammoth war chest.  Since he left the Senate, Coats served as the US Ambassador to Germany and has, for the past ten years, been employed in Washington as a lobbyist and foreign agent.  He established a residence in Virginia and voted there for ten years.  In other words, his vita is not the most desirable one for the electorate this year.          

            Bayh, who served as Indiana’s governor for eight years before becoming a Senator, said in his valedictory that he considered himself an executive, not a legislator, and thinks he can serve more effectively in some other role – not continuing in what he describes as a “dysfunctional Congress.”    He mentioned potential roles as a University administrator, a foundation leader or “creating jobs managing a business.”   An Indianapolis friend of mine, the CEO of a major company, who knows Evan Bayh as well as anyone suggests that he is a great manager.  Bayh ran Indiana extremely well and made decisions with precision.  My friend says that Evan will make a great CEO – of a university, a company or a foundation. 

            Bayh came to Washington in the worst kind of situation for a hard charger.  He was a junior member of the minority in the Senate… and it stayed that way for eight long years.  A senator friend of mine who came to the Senate in 2006 asked me about my friend Bayh, “Why doesn’t Evan like his job?” he asked me.  I noticed that he seemed more interested and more involved these past three years when, in the majority, he could make things happen.  But the dysfunction finally got to him when the bi-partisan debt project collapsed last month.

            The timing of Bayh’s decision came on precisely the last day he could do so without getting into the race.  The deadline for entry (by filing petitions signed by thousands of Hoosiers) is noon tomorrow.  It is unlikely that any candidate will qualify and the State Democratic Committee will be empowered to fill the nomination.  Three Democratic Congressmen are the most likely to step up for the race.  They are Brad Ellsworth, the former mayor of Evansville Barron Hill, from Southeastern Indiana, and Joe Donnelly from the South Bend region.  None have statewide recognition and they will be considered the underdog in the race.

(For the record:  I met Evan Bayh when he was five years old and I was his dad’s chief of staff in the Senate.  I have been involved and observing his career and his life from an insider’s view for lo these many years.  He is quite an amazing and competent man.) 

Tea Party Politics

            The Tea Party movement met for the first time in convention last weekend at Opryland in Nashville Tennessee.  Among their announced goals was to develop an organization to promote the goals of the movement and coordinate the activity of their many individual local clubs.  Good luck and God bless them.  I did not attend the sessions… the $549 registration fee was just too much for me.  But I can give you a report on who the people were that did attend and what happened. 

            Over the years I have had my experiences with third party and rump movements like the Tea Baggers and they are quite predictable.  The reports from Nashville confirmed my thinking.  Today’s Tea Baggers are yesterday’s Reform Partyers, or Peace and Freedom Partyers, American Independent Partyers or like minded political self governance adherents.  The usual lot includes several political “has beens” who are in denial – like Pat Buchanan and Mike Gravel and Alan Keyes – who seek to lead a movement when they lost their welcome in the major parties.  And then there are the self-starters who have strong policy views, strong senses of self righteousness and little interest or ability to compromise. 

            The Tea Baggers are in the latter category.  The movement has been evolving from small individual groups around the country.  By now there are several significant groupings… the Tea Party Express, the Tea Party Patriots and the Tea Party Nation, to mention a few.  Former Republican Congressional Leader Dick Armey has promoted and funded Tea Baggers through his political group, Freedom Works and Fox commentator Glen Beck has championed the same groups.

            The reason individuals are drawn to these movements is that they generally do not get along with other political activists.  They cannot or will not compromise their own views to coalesce with others.  They want it their way, or no way.  They are strong willed.  They do not compromise.  They are easily slighted and never forget or forgive a slight.  They will make a lot of noise individually and in small groups.  But even with Armey’s money, I do not believe they will be able to get their act together.

            I was asked to help the Reform Party build and manage a national convention in 2000.  The Perot candidacy had earned the party a significant bounty – some $16+ million – from the Federal Election Program – $2.8 million designated specifically for a national nominating convention.   The party had never held a nominating convention before and the new leadership of the party wanted to hold a significant convention as a party building exercise.  But two forces interrupted that project.  The long time leadership of the Party – Perot agents- and the new force – candidate Pat Buchanan – had their eyes on that money. 

            The funds became the focus of major internecine warfare.  When the smoke cleared, they held a convention of little significance.  Buchanan claimed and spent all of the money, much of it on legal fees from internecine fights.  

Meanwhile, our Wars Continue

             Lest we forget, Americans keep dying and keep being injured in Iraq and Afghanistan.   The official count as of October 31, 2009, of the dead since our involvement in Iraq began on March 23, 2003 is 4,376; the dead from the war in Afghanistan from its beginning in September 2001 is 990.  The count of American service personnel wounded in Iraq is now 31,626; in Afghanistan 9,496 according to the Department of Defense.

            We are rolling the dice in Afghanistan right now.  The “surge” strategy that worked so well in Iraq is being implemented in Operation Moshtarak (Dari for “Together”). The goal is to conquer, control and maintain Marjah, a major Taliban stronghold in Helmand province.  The city remains the command and control hub for the insurgency. Marjah is also considered to be one of the main narcotics centers in Helmand. In preparation for Operation Moshtarak, insurgents have constructed tunnels and bunkers, brought in heavy weapons, set booby traps and strewn landmines around Marjah. It is reported that 90% of the population remain in the town, trapped by IED belts that ring navigable terrain.

            It will be a month before we will have a good evaluation.  Keep your fingers crossed.

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Robert J. Keefe

TKC International, Inc.

1776 I Street, NW, Suite 900 – Washington, D. C. 20006

Telephone: 202 255-8161 – E mail: rkeefe@tkci.com

Washington, D.C.

February 1, 2010

Political Update

            This Update is being written two weeks late… for no other reason than I wanted to wait to see what happened in the United States Senate race in Massachusetts. And I am glad I did.  I would have written something encouraging to the Democrats and been dead wrong.

            There was certainly nothing encouraging to President Barack Obama and the Democrats from the victory of Senator-elect Scott Brown.  The Republican victory does so many nasty things to the Dems.  It destroys that fragile 60 vote margin in the Senate that is so important for the conduct of contentious business…and contentious business seems to be all that is pending anymore.  It anoints a new, attractive partisan Republican personality from New England.  It infuses hope and life in the moribund Republican organization.  It makes a whole new health care bill a requirement. 

            I have considered myself a Massachusetts expert among my colleagues since I designed a win there for the Hawkish Henry Jackson in the presidential primary of 1976.  It is not simply the pointy headed liberal enclave of the Harvardians.  Rather it has a heavily middle class, ethnic population – the kind of voters who are hurting badly during this current recession.  I learned my Massachusetts politics from Senator Ted Kennedy himself.  He was a great friend of my candidate, Scoop Jackson, and wanted to help him in his presidential race from behind the scenes.  That prompted a delightfully long afternoon in his Senate office, sipping on white wine and marveling at the collective political minutiae about his state that Ted had collected.  He took me town by town, pointing out pitfalls, phonies, opportunities and generally important information that one can use in a campaign.  It was a display of his attention to the details of his electorate that kept him safely in the Senate for those forty-nine years

            But Massachusetts, like every other state, is changing rapidly.  Demographic changes continue at a rapid rate as immigration and internal migration has become so constant.  It is significant everywhere.  The disappearing loyalty of the electorate to the political parties continues and quickens.  Massachusetts isn’t the Democratic state I remembered.  It is like almost every other state, populated by people who think and vote independently, regardless of their registration.

            And in Massachusetts, we saw the depth of the anger and concern the people hold about their current circumstances and the inability of their government to resolve the problems.  It is fair to suggest that the Obama Administration has had its eye on balls other than those that the people feel hurt them… and it had better get a better focus, if it has any hope to continue in government and lead the people. 

The President Reacts

            I would suggest that to call this event a “wake-up call” would be too tame in view of the reaction of President Obama.  He has responded with vigor… with passion.  He is not taking things lightly and is reverting to full campaign mode. 

            Clearly he believes that the public are not getting the messages he has been sending and that they are misreading the tea leaves.  He intends to help them understand what he is doing and what results from his activity.  In just a few days he has:

• Given a rousing State of the Union Message – a bit “in  your face” to the opposition.
• Invaded the Republican Congressional Caucus to go mono e mano with his antagonists.
• Visited Town Hall Meeting in Tampa, Florida with VP Joe Biden.
• Hosted a Jobs Tax Credit event in Baltimore, Maryland.
• Presented his annual Budget message in a series of speeches, and
• He gave an interview on YouTube.

            The campaign to regain the high ground of the debate in Washington seems essential to the success of the Obama presidency.  With the loss of the 60 vote majority in the Senate, he knows that it will be a fight to get any bill through that body.  He believes that by the force of his presentations, he can make the difference.  It worked for him in the campaign… now let’s see how it works from the Oval Office.

Maddening items that matter

            Now that the chickens are beginning to roost in unpleasant places, it is worth taking a look at the items that have created the mindset that is guiding so many of our countrymen.  And we will start with a whopper… government spending, in particular for the moment, the prospective health care measure

            None of us can really get our arms around the numbers…. They are way too large for our comprehension.  But let’s try.  The Democrats have tabled a Health Care bill with a $900 billion price tag.  You have heard that dozens of times, but what on earth does it mean. 

            Surprise, surprise… That great big impressive number is misleading.  Actually, misleading in both directions.  First of all… the bill is for the first ten years of the program, meaning that the bill will cost an average of $90 billion per year.  That still sounds big… scary big, but when you put it into the context of national health-care spending it is almost a rounding error.  We spent $2.3 trillion on health care last year.  The new program cost is less than five percent of the current annual spending… less than a good tip.  So is it expensive???

            But do not get in line for your free cat-scan just yet.  The program – should it pass – will not get started for a couple of years… 2014, to be exact.  The startup time is one good reason for the time lag… they have to get your hospital rooms ready and your cat-san machine tuned up.  But in addition to this legitimate lag, the delay will also make the price look lower.  The CBO is measuring over a ten  year period, so three years  without spending will make it look much lower.  If you really want to check on costs, you have to begin your count in an early years of operations, 2016 would be a good time to start.  Under that more practical tablulation, the cost would be about $150 Billion per year… still not a major factor in the total health care cost since inflation in spending will keep that number in the 4 percent range.

            So this big bad Medical program that scares everybody is really sort of a marginal expenditure, in the true scheme of things.  What is the big deal?

            Then we have the budget deficit.  Wow.  For my long career in politics, I have disliked the politicization of deficits.  That is somewhat because it has always been the Republicans railing against Democrats for being profligate spenders… The annual rite of Congress to legislate a higher ceiling for the National Debt is a theatrical spectacle. The party out of power rails against the spending habits of the government… the incumbents try to duck

            Now, as a result of what we pleasantly refer to as the “financial melt down” the numbers of the debt and its resultant service costs are astronomical and unfathomable.  But the game goes on and provides a rationale for people to get mad at their government.  There is a movement afoot to create a bi-partisan commission of some kind to develop a plan to deal with the enormous debt we hold.  That is a good idea and would really be neat if it was empowered to do something to resolve the problem. 

            Prudent budget management is essential for several reasons…

1. The imbalance is not sustainable… Something will have to give, and relatively soon.
2. Current projections indicate that the deficits will be in the 4+ percent of GDP and be rising as the nation crawls out of the Great Recession… and that is too high.
3. The risks to the financial market from the large deficits will endanger the rest of the economy and it will undermine our standing in the world.
4. And, as important as any of the above, the service on this increased debt would mean moving public expenditures away from public services, security costs, and needed investment into unproductive interest payments.

There is a broad consensus growing that we need to lower our deficits – and do it quickly. As with all public policy questions, the problem is how to do it.  Thus, the suggestion (again) is to get a blue ribbon panel studying and planning an escape from this problem even if the seven Republicans who sponsored a resolution to appoint one ran from the idea once the President endorsed it.  It appears he will do it himself…

It is an Election Year

            I came to work in the Congress in the first year of a term.  We worked to make the world a better place, developing ideas, creating concepts and sought to pass bills to improve life and governance.  Then the Christmas holidays happened and everybody went home.  When they came back to Capitol Hill, everything had changed.  I could not believe it.  It was now an election year and that was all that was on anybody’s mind.  Our work turned almost exclusively to winning the election. 

            Well, that is where we are.  It is now an election year and all eyes are on the campaign. 

            It is starting early.  The Democrats in Illinois changed the date of the Illinois primary in 2008 to accommodate their favorite son’s presidential ambition.  It helped Obama by giving him an early victory.  But now they are stuck with a very early primary election… In fact, it is tomorrow, February 2.  Illinois was always early… the third Tuesday in March – a St. Patrick’s Day sort of time.  But now, it will happen before they turn the Chicago River green to celebrate the Irish saint’s day.  Both parties have important contests for Governor and Senator.

            The Pew Research organization tell us that about half (52%) of registered voters would like to see their own representative re-elected and e 34% say that most members of Congress should be re-elected.  That sounds OK, but it is really quite low… the most negative in the past two decades.  Low measures on these questions usually come true.  The ratings were low in the 1994 and 2006 cycles, when the party in power suffered large losses in midterm elections.

            Once more, this year it is the independents who are making their voices heard.  Only 42% of independent voters want to see their own representative re-elected and just 25% would like to see most members of Congress re-elected.

            As always, all 435 members of the House of Representatives will be up for election this year.  Currently, the Democrats have 257 members; the Republican 178.  The 2010 class of Senators who are up for election number 35 of which 18 are Democrats and 17 are Republican. Four Republican Senators are retiring and two Democrats are doing so.

Meanwhile, our Wars Continue

             Lest we forget, Americans keep dying and keep being injured in Iraq and Afghanistan.   The official count as of October 31, 2009, of the dead since our involvement in Iraq began on March 23, 2003 is 4,375; the dead from the war in Afghanistan from its beginning in September 2001 is 978.  The count of American service personnel wounded in Iraq is now 31,616; in Afghanistan 4,748, according to the Department of Defense.

            While the war wears on and demands on service personnel are continuing and severe, the Senate held a hearing today to review – and hopefully end – the “Don’t Ask; Don’t Tell” policy which defines the rules for gay members of our military. 

            The Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staffs, Admiral Mike Mullen, gave a strikingly candid and strong statement supporting the end of the Don’t Ask era and the integration of gays into the forces…a strong support for civil rights in the military.  It appears that the end is in sight, but not until the military takes a year to study how to handle the new reality.  I have a feeling Senator Carl Levin is planning a coup to sneak a cancellation of the policy on the Armed Services Authorization Bill.  Hooray.

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Robert J. Keefe

TKC International, Inc.

1776 I Street, NW, Suite 900 – Washington, D. C. 20006

Telephone: 202 255-8161 – E mail: rkeefe@tkci.com